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Forbes
Forbes
25 Jul 2023


In the last two years, 384,000 more people moved into than out of counties that are vulnerable to flooding — including many beach spots along Florida’s vulnerable coasts — representing an increase of more than 100%, according to Redfin data, as the pandemic and affordability crisis in the United States led people to ditch expensive cities and relocate, despite risks.

Florida's Southern Gulf Coast Continues Clean Up Efforts In Wake Of Hurricane Ian

In this aerial view, destruction left in the wake of Hurricane Ian is shown on October 02, 2022 in ... [+] Fort Myers Beach, Florida. Fort Myers Beach sustained severe damage by the Category 4 hurricane which caused extensive damage to the southwest portion of Florida. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

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The number of people moving into counties that ranked in the top 10% for flood risk increased by 103% in 2021 and 2022 compared to the two years prior, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage and data collector, which identified at-risk counties and compared the number of people moving into and out of them.

Researchers for Redfin speculated that remote work and “record-low mortgage rates” in the pandemic led to Americans leaving expensive coastal cities for more affordable housing or more ideal temperatures in places like Florida and Arizona, despite concerns of extreme heat or fire risk.

In San Francisco, for example, the median home price in June was $1.4 million, but in Fort Myers, Florida, the median price is $410,000, while in Gilbert, Arizona, it’s $625,000.

Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said it’s “human nature to focus on current benefits” over benefits that happen over time, like property damage or decreased property value, adding that it’s also human nature to discount risks that are tough to measure, like climate change.”

Spurred By Rising Prices, Phoenix Undergoes A New Housing Boom

New homes are under construction at a housing development on March 6, 2013 in Gilbert, Arizona. The ... [+] median home price in Gilbert is $625,000, compared to $1.4 million in San Francisco, leading some people to risk the heat for more inexpensive living. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

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60,000. That’s about how many more people moved into than out of Lee County, Florida—including Fort Myers, which had areas almost entirely underwater during Hurricane Ian in September, 2022. The county, in which half of the homes are at high flood risk, saw a 65% increase in migration compared to the last two years.

Hurricane Ian Slams Into West Coast Of Florida

In an aerial view, boats are piled on top of each other after Hurricane Ian passed through the area ... [+] on September 29, 2022 in Fort Myers Beach, Florida. Researchers for Redfin in 2023 speculated that remote work and “record-low mortgage rates” in the pandemic led to Americans leaving expensive coastal cities for more affordable housing or more ideal temperatures in places like Fort Myers, where the median home price is $410,000. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

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The only two areas Redfin identified that went against the trend of Americans moving to areas for a good deal despite their proximity to disasters were Paradise, California, and parts of Louisiana. Orleans Parish and Jefferson Parish—the two areas surrounding New Orleans, both of which face high flood risk—saw about 15,000 more people leave than arrive in the last two years, continuing the trend of people fleeing after disaster for Louisiana. The California county home to Paradise, California—which was ruined by the Camp Fire five years ago—has also lost about 2,000 more people than it gained. Just after the fire in 2019 and 2020, the county had a net outflow of 17,000 people.

Aerial View Of New Orleans

Aerial views of New Orleans on Thursday afternoon and evening, September 8, 2005. Orleans Parish and ... [+] Jefferson Parish—two areas surrounding New Orleans, both of which face high flood risk—saw about 15,000 more people leave than arrive in the last two years, continuing the trend of people fleeing after disaster for Louisiana. (Photo by Dina Rudick/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

Boston Globe via Getty Images