The Trump campaign’s prediction ahead of Election Day that abortion ballot measures in battleground states may ultimately help him appears to have panned out, as the results suggest many voters backed abortion rights but also former President Donald Trump—bucking the trend of abortion traditionally helping Democrats win.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention ... [+]
Abortion access was on the ballot in 10 states, including the key battleground states of Arizona, Florida and Nevada—with measures ultimately passing in seven states, including Arizona and Nevada, and garnering 57% support in Florida even as it failed to meet the 60% threshold needed to pass.
Trump campaign political director James Blair told The Washington Post ahead of the election he believed it’s possible the ballot measures would end up being “favorable to Republicans,” because they “[allow] a voter to exercise their judgments on abortion policy and their state on the one hand while exercising judgment on who should serve as president [on the other]”—meaning voters wouldn’t necessarily feel the need to back Vice President Kamala Harris because of her commitment to abortion rights.
While Democrats instead hoped the ballot measures would help Harris—by turning out more Democratic voters who would want to vote for her—election results and polling suggest Blair’s prediction came to pass.
Though the Associated Press has still not yet called the presidential results in Arizona and Nevada, the abortion ballot measures there and in Florida garnered far more support than Harris, and AP exit polling suggests between 19% and 35% of voters who backed abortion rights measures in each state where it was on the ballot also voted for Trump.
It also suggests Trump’s claims on the campaign trail that he would leave abortion up to the states and not ban it nationally landed with voters—even as Democrats warned abortion rights could still be under threat during a second Trump presidency.
Abortion rights ballot measures were also more popular than Harris even in states she won, as more voters approved the measures than backed her in Colorado, Maryland and New York. Voters also passed abortion rights measures but elected Trump in Missouri and Montana, though those states were expected to go for the ex-president. The only states where abortion ballot measures failed to get a majority of votes were South Dakota, where an abortion rights ballot measure only got 41.4% support, and Nebraska, where voters instead supported banning abortion after 12 weeks, while a competing measure to enshrine abortion rights narrowly failed with 48.6% in favor. Both states largely voted for Trump, though Nebraska’s second district went for Harris with 51.2% of the vote.
Senate races are also still being decided in Arizona and Nevada. Results give Democrats, Rep. Ruben Gallego in Arizona and Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada, narrow leads. Arizona’s measure so far has a clear majority of 61.3% in support of protecting abortion rights, while Nevada’s has 64% support. Montana’s ballot measure also failed to boost incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester as the left had hoped, as Tester lost to GOP challenger Tim Sheehy and garnered only 45.4% of the votes, even as the state protected abortion rights.
What Trump will actually do about abortion when he’s in office. While he has publicly promised to leave abortion to the states and veto any national abortion ban that Congress could pass, Democrats have long been skeptical and warned voters Trump would ban abortion if elected. Trump and his administration will have multiple options to ban or heavily restrict abortion if they so choose, even without the help of Congress. The Trump administration could enforce the Comstock Act, a long-dormant law from the 19th century that bans any abortion equipment from being sent through the mail—which would effectively ban the procedure, if doctors couldn’t get any supplies for it—and his Food and Drug Administration could revoke approval of abortion drug mifepristone. With Republicans retaking the Senate and appearing poised to hold onto control of the House, lawmakers could also try to pass abortion restrictions through Congress, and it remains to be seen if Trump would stick to his promise of not signing those into law.
Abortion ballot measures have become a key tool for Democrats and abortion rights advocates in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022, harnessing public opinion in favor of abortion rights to keep the procedure legal even in red states. This is the first year since the Supreme Court’s ruling where any ballot measures have not broken in favor of abortion rights, after seven states backed abortion rights at the ballot box in 2022 and 2023. Harris’ focus on abortion rights on the campaign trail also came amid a streak of wins by Democrats in 2022 and 2023 elections in races where abortion was a major issue. Trump pivoted to the center on abortion after long flip-flopping on the issue by coming out in favor of leaving the issue up to states in April, after previously suggesting he could support a national 15-week ban. JD Vance, R-Ohio, Trump’s running mate, also moderated his longstanding anti-abortion views on the campaign trail, backing Trump’s position on leaving it up to the states and claiming to not have supported a national abortion ban even as evidence shows otherwise.