Former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial, which commenced Monday in Manhattan with jury selection, could cost him the 2024 election if it ends in a conviction, polls show—even though less than half of voters believe he should be found guilty.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the courtroom after a break on the first day of his ... [+]
A New York Times/Siena poll released Saturday, the latest to ask about the case, found 57% of registered voters polled believe the charges are serious, while 37% said they weren’t serious, and 46% said he should be found guilty, while 37% said he shouldn’t and 17% weren’t sure or refused the question.
Polls show a guilty conviction in any of Trump’s four criminal cases—even in the lower-profile hush money case—could sway the results of the November election, as Trump and President Joe Biden are within single-digit margins of each other and the race will likely be decided by a handful of swing states that Biden won by just tens of thousands of votes in 2020.
Some 13% of voters who said they would vote for Trump today indicated they wouldn’t if he were convicted of a felony, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week that also found 24% of all Republicans surveyed wouldn’t vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony—which could be enough to cost Trump the election.
Voters are split along party lines: Just 14% of Republicans think Trump is guilty in the case, which accuses him of falsifying records to hide hush money payments, compared to 86% of Democrats and 54% of independents, according to a March Politico/Ipsos poll.
The Reuters/Ispos poll also found the majority of adults consider each of Trump’s criminal cases to be “serious,” though less so when it comes to the hush money case, which 65% said was serious, compared to his federal classified documents case (70%), his Georgia election interference case (72%) and the federal election fraud case (75%).
Some 38% of voters believe Trump’s conduct in the hush money case was unethical but not illegal, according to an August AP/NORC survey that found 13% said the same about his Georgia election interference case, 18% for his role in the January 6 Capitol riots and 16% for his federal classified documents case.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests Trump’s claims that his four criminal cases are designed to thwart his chances of being elected appear to be resonating with many voters, 48% of whom said the charges are “excessive and politically motivated,” with 78% of Republicans, 16% of Democrats and 50% of Independents sharing that view.
0.2 percentage points. That’s Trump’s lead against Biden in a general election matchup, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
Jury selection for Trump’s hush money trial—the first of his four criminal cases—started Monday in Manhattan, where he faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Prosecutors allege Trump’s company paid his former attorney Michael Cohen $420,000 as reimbursement for payments Cohen made to adult film star Stormy Daniels in exchange for her silence about an affair she claims to have had with Trump. Prosecutors elevated the falsifying business records charges, typically a misdemeanor, to felonies by alleging Trump committed the alleged crimes in the commission of the secondary crime of campaign finance violations, arguing the payments were effectively political donations to Trump that exceeded the legal limit. Trump has pleaded not guilty to the charges and has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that state Judge Juan Merchan and the prosecutor who brought the case, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, are working on behalf of Biden to help him win the election.
It could take at least a week to select the 12-person jury. Jurors will be asked a series of 42 questions to determine if they are capable of serving in an impartial manner, including whether they have attended a Trump rally or follow him on social media.
Whether Merchan will grant prosecutors’ request to have Trump fined $3,000 on grounds he violated the terms of the gag order he imposed in March that prohibits Trump from disparaging potential witnesses, court staff or their families and family members of Merchan and Bragg. Prosecutors pointed to Trump’s attacks on Cohen and Daniels in a series of Truth Social posts over the weekend in making the request Monday. Merchan will hold a hearing April 23 to determine whether Trump violated the order.
Trump Judge Merchan Warns Of Arrest If Trump Disrupts Or Skips Hush Money Trial (Forbes)
Prosecutors Want Trump Fined $3,000 For Violating Judge Merchan’s Gag Order (Forbes)
Trump’s Trial Will Include ‘Access Hollywood’ Tape—But Not Sexual Assault Allegations, Judge Rules (Forbes)
Trump Rips Manhattan Hush Money Case Just Before Arriving In Court (Forbes)