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Forbes
Forbes
29 Dec 2024


NASHVILLE, TN - Donald Trump reacts at the 2024 Bitcoin Confer

Donald Trump at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, TN. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

The Washington Post via Getty Images

Crypto winter? Over. Fallen empires and courtroom drama? In the rearview. The survivors? Battle-tested and eyeing the horizon like it’s the next gold rush.

After years of clashes with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds have arrived. As of mid-December 16, U.S. bitcoin ETFs held $129 billion in assets, surpassing the $125 billion in gold ETFs, according to Norway-based K33 Research.

A post-election cocktail of market euphoria and Donald Trump’s promises to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world” and establish a strategic bitcoin reserve sent bitcoin past $100,000.

Solana is having a moment, fueled by memecoin hype and new categories like dePINs—networks that leverage blockchain tech to decentralize control and ownership of physical infrastructure. Platforms like Polymarket, where users bet on the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, and the battle royale game Off The Grid have found mainstream success. A new wave of “degens” are gambling on tokens like fartcoin and dogwifhat, both now with a market cap above $1 billion.

“It’s the year that crypto moved into the mainstream consciousness in a way that it hadn’t since 2021, and that it is now a sustainable long-term asset class that is going to have a voice and is going to matter,” says Rob Hadick, general partner at Dragonfly, a San Francisco-based crypto venture capital firm. “If you look at just the effect that crypto had on the election—both as donors and in terms of bringing it forward in legislatures and for presidential candidates—that's never been done before and obviously a big step forward in legitimization.”

With Trump and a cadre of crypto-friendly officials poised to take office, the stage is set for what insiders are already calling "crypto’s golden age." Here’s what’s brewing:

The art of bold price prediction is back in vogue. Crypto asset manager Bitwise forecasts $200,000—or even $500,000—per bitcoin if the U.S. creates a strategic reserve akin to those for oil or gold. The logic: the U.S. official bitcoin stockpile would trigger global FOMO.

Trump floated using 200,000 bitcoins confiscated from criminals (worth $21 billion) to jumpstart the reserve at the Nashville Bitcoin conference in July. But the legal pathway is murky—will it require Congressional approval, or can the executive branch act unilaterally? Pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed a Treasury-operated reserve in July. Skeptics argue the asset’s volatility could undermine financial stability. Trump's silence on whether the U.S. would acquire more bitcoin through open market purchases adds another layer of intrigue.

The incoming administration is shaping up to be the most pro-crypto yet. Key appointments include:

“There's a real opportunity to get good policy in place for the industry,” says Kristin Smith, CEO of Washington DC-based Blockchain Association, which represents more than 100 crypto companies. “The White House has indicated that this is a priority. I think we're going to see a combination of efforts across government, a legislative push for market structure and stablecoins and a big shift towards a lot of the innovation coming back to the US,” she adds.

The pipeline of crypto IPOs is heating up. Bitwise names five companies likely to go public next year:

Additionally, Dragonfly’s Hadick says, “I expect the LP market to get better—they’ll want to put more capital into crypto—and a lot of the traditional web 2 crossover funds return to the space. We are already starting to see it in certain pockets like stablecoins and payments.” But VC dealmaking tends to lag public market price rallies by a quarter or two, he adds.

MicroStrategy’s stock is up over 400% this year. Now part of the Nasdaq 100, analysts predict S&P 500 inclusion is next thanks to new accounting rules that would allow it to reflect its bitcoin investments at market value in its financial statements. This change could usher MicroStrategy into index-tracking funds and hence the portfolios of countless U.S. investors. Cofounder and executive chairman Michael Saylor's "Bitcoin Treasury" play—selling bonds and equities to hoard the asset—has propelled his $86 billion enterprise into the ranks of the S&P 500's top 100 firms. Coinbase, up 70% this year, could also join the coveted index, according to analysts.

The stablecoin sector is poised for explosive growth, potentially doubling to a $400 billion market cap as the U.S. edges closer to long-awaited stablecoin legislation. In 2024, stablecoin transactions’ volume reached $8.3 trillion, nearly matching Visa's $9.9 trillion in payment volume, according to Bitwise.

Tether and Circle still reign supreme, riding the wave of high interest rates. However, if they continue to operate more like asset managers than payment companies, their growth could soon stall, cautioned Hadick.

Stripe’s $1.1 billion acquisition of stablecoin platform Bridge in October sent a message—stablecoins could become cornerstones of fintech. Stripe hails them as “superconductors for financial services,” touting their unmatched speed, low cost, and global reach. Robinhood isn’t far behind with ambitions for a global stablecoin network.

Meanwhile, next-generation “stablecoin 2.0” models are quietly gaining traction. “There are a bunch of new stablecoin models that are kicking back revenue to holders of the token, or actually the applications who onboard users,” explains Ceteris, head of research at New York-based crypto analytics firm Delphi Digital. “I could see those being disruptive.”

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, has been proselytizing tokenization for years. From real estate to art, everything might soon have a token. The big benefits: instantaneous settlement, lower costs than traditional securitization, round-the-clock liquidity and transparency.

Three years ago, the crypto sector had only tokenized $2 billion in real-world assets (RWAs), including private credit, U.S. debt, commodities, and stocks. Today that figure is close to $14 billion. Venture capital firm ParaFi predicts that the tokenized RWA market could skyrocket to $2 trillion by 2030, heralding a significant transformation in asset ownership and trading.

Buzzword of the month: AI agents. Get ready to witness the fusion of artificial intelligence and crypto in ways that feel closer to science fiction.

The first shoots of this trend are already breaking ground. Look at TruthTerminal—an AI agent that not only pulled in $50,000 from Marc Andreessen but also became a millionaire by leveraging social media on X. Its success stemmed from promoting a coin based on an absurd early 2000s meme (the token’s anonymous creator(s) transferred a significant sum to TruthTerminal’s wallet, managed by creator Andy Ayrey).

But analysts are wary. Practical AI agents—for example, those attempting to execute complex transactions across blockchains on behalf of users— are scarce and early. “Agents are exciting because they are so new,” says Delphi’s Ceteris, “but will probably be the biggest bubble of this cycle, for good and bad.”

While the blockchain industry remains fragmented and most decentralized apps have not yet become mainstream, the work on a robust infrastructure continues. “Solana set the trend for the high throughput chain era (cryptospeak for blockchains capable of processing thousands of transactions per second similarly to Visa and MasterCard), and you're seeing nearly every new chain launch under this kind of umbrella so there’s going to be a lot of cheap block space,” Ceteris explains.

And just like that, crypto's narrative has flipped from survival to euphoria. This is just a taste of what the next year could bring. Your choice: grab your popcorn for the show—or your wallet for the opportunity. Caution is essential. The market will swerve through inevitable highs and gut-check lows. And this time, the stakes seem to be higher than ever.