There are few sure things in politics, but if Glenn Youngkin was the first-term incumbent governor of any state other than Virginia, he might just be one.
A Republican with a strong approval rating in a state that went for Joe Biden in 2024, Youngkin is popular, competent and photogenic. But the Old Dominion, thanks to a quirk in its 1776 constitution, is the only state where a governor cannot serve two consecutive terms. So instead of getting the chance to re-elect Youngkin, Virginia voters face a choice in November between Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger.
There is no way to sugarcoat that this is a real disadvantage for the GOP. Had Youngkin been allowed to run, it is not even clear that Spanberger would have entered the race. Now she's a heavy favorite to win.
Youngkin has been above 50% in approval rating for almost his entire time in Richmond, no mean feat in a commonwealth that handed Kamala Harris a six-point win over Donald Trump, last year.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin addresses the crowd during an early voting rally on Sept. 21, 2023, in Petersburg, Va. (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)
The question is whether there is any way for Republicans to harness the potent power of incumbency and transfer it from Youngkin to Earle-Sears. And though it might seem unconventional, the answer really should be, yes.
Youngkin’s accomplishments in under four years are impressive. He delivered $4 billion in tax cuts. In 2024, CNBC ranked Virginia the "top state for business" in the country. His overhaul of the education system has raised standards for students.
This is what Youngkin would be running on if Virginia law wasn’t so weird, but why can’t Earle-Sears also run on this very record? After all, she was right by his side the whole time. In fact, why can’t they run on it together?
Earle-Sears finds herself in almost the exact opposite position that Kamala Harris was in a year ago, replacing the top dog on the ticket. In Harris’s case, it was because Joe Biden was not fit to serve, while in Youngkin’s case, it is because of a decision made by some guys in powdered wigs 250 years ago.
But, while Harris was doomed by her inability to differentiate herself from the wildly unpopular and bungling Biden, Earle-Sears has no reason to distance herself from Youngkin. Instead, she should be celebrating what they have achieved together.
We should see Youngkin and Earle-Sears hip to hip at rallies and on TV ads, him defending his successful single term, and her promising to continue and expand on it.
This arrangement, if not quite a co-campaign then at least a quasi-incumbency, wouldn’t just help Earle-Sears, it could help Youngkin with potential future political ambitions. Let’s not forget that in the days before the Republican National Convention, he was a serious dark horse for the VP slot.
In Milwaukee, at that RNC, you could see Youngkin’s political chops at work. People would flock to him, in part because he’s approximately 8 feet tall and easily recognized, but also because they just like the guy.
None of this is a knock on Earle-Sears, who has much to recommend her on her own merits, but to leave Youngkin, and all he brings to the table, on the sidelines, would be political malpractice.
Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va. (Getty Images)
Thus far, Earle-Sears campaign has seemed focused on culture war issues, especially the battle over Northern Virginia counties flouting the Trump administration’s rules on trans policies like boys in women’s sports and restrooms.
This is an important and powerful issue, but it isn’t enough on its own.
The economy, on the other hand, is not a sexy issue, but it sure does win elections. Earle-Sears is in the unique position to not only say that she can bring about a strong state economy, but that she is already part of the team that has delivered on that promise.
When the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was debated, some wanted what Andrew Jackson wanted over a century earlier: a single six-year term for president that would remove the burden (and temptations) of running for reelection.
Back in 1951, Congress landed on two four-year terms, instead. But what nobody ever seriously proposed was a single four-year term, because it's not enough time to see through major projects and endeavors. Not for the U.S., and not for any state.
Maybe more so than any other political office in America, the Virginia governorship truly is custodial than it is powerful. Youngkin is a short-term caretaker, but what will matter most to his legacy is who gets the keys to commonwealth next.