Would-be homebuyers are getting a case of cold feet as they confront still elevated mortgage rates and record-high housing prices.
New findings published by Redfin show that a growing number of buyers are backing out of deals to buy a house at the last minute because buying a home is more expensive than ever. About 56,000 home purchases were canceled in June – about 15% of homes that went under contract – the highest percentage of any June on record.
The median home sale price rose 4% in June to $442,525, the highest level on record. At the same time, the average 30-year mortgage rate was about 6.92%, more than double the pandemic-era lows.
"Buyers are getting more and more selective," said Julie Zubiate, a Redfin real estate agent near San Francisco. "They’re backing out due to minor issues because the monthly costs associated with buying a home today are just too high to rationalize not getting everything on their must-have list."
Homes in the Issaquah Highlands area of Issaquah, Washington on Tuesday, April 16, 2024. (Photographer: David Ryder/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Still, there are some signs that home prices may soon fall.
The Redfin report showed that one in five homes for sale saw a price cut, the highest level of any June on record. It marks a notable increase from the 14.4% pace seen one year ago and is just shy of the 21.7% record set in October 2022.
There are a number of driving forces behind the affordability crisis.
Years of underbuilding fueled a shortage of homes in the country, a problem that was later exacerbated by the rapid rise in mortgage rates and expensive construction materials.
Higher mortgage rates over the past three years have also created a "golden handcuff" effect in the housing market. Sellers who locked in a record-low mortgage rate of 3% or less during the pandemic began have been reluctant to sell, limiting supply further and leaving few options for eager would-be buyers.
A home available for sale is shown on May 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Economists predict that mortgage rates will remain elevated for most of 2024 and that they will only begin to fall once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. Even then, rates are unlikely to return to the lows seen during the pandemic, with investors predicting just one or two rate reductions this year.
"Some prospective buyers are simply waiting for mortgage rates to come down after the Federal Reserve cuts rates, most likely in September," said Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist. "With inflation cooling and the job market still solid, rate cuts are now almost a foregone conclusion, which means those buyers who can wait are doing so."
Most homeowners say they are nearly twice as willing to sell their home if their mortgage rate is 5% or higher, according to a Zillow survey. Currently, about 80% of mortgage holders have a rate below 5%.