The high-profile US-Ukraine mineral extraction deal—promoted earlier as a breakthrough in strategic partnership—faces serious obstacles due to outdated geological data, war risks, and weak rare earth reserves, according to industry experts cited by the Washington Post on 3 May.

The deal, which includes US extraction rights to Ukraine’s mineral, oil, and gas resources, is designed to help repay future US military aid to Kyiv and the reconstruction of Ukraine. But analysts say actual shipments of critical materials like titanium, lithium, and graphite may not materialize for at least a decade.

“This absolutely is not a solution to these immediate problems,” said Reed Blakemore of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, referring to US dependence on China for metals vital to weapons, electronics, and battery production.

Ukraine’s mining sector has seen little investment in decades, and most data on underground deposits come from obsolete Soviet-era maps. CDM Engineering Ukraine teams are still only beginning groundwater testing at sites like the Polokhivske lithium deposit in Kirovohrad Oblast.

Ukraine lacks confirmed reserves of the 17 rare earth metals critical to defense and electronics. Despite Trump-era claims of $500 billion in rare earth value, experts call such figures unfounded. Conventional resources face hurdles too, with key oil and gas fields in war zones and infrastructure badly damaged. High costs of extraction and logistics continue to deter investors.

Former Biden official Zumwalt-Forbes and SAFE minerals expert Abigail Hunter both emphasized that even confirmed lithium reserves are modest and largely located in Russian-occupied territory. Hunter noted that infrastructure damage further erodes investor returns.

Despite these setbacks, some analysts still see political value in the deal.

“It signals that the US is engaged in Ukraine’s economy as a strategic partner,” said Jay Truesdale of TD International, acknowledging possible long-term investment gains.