The last week was marked with events of strategic importance that exerted influence on the course of the war.
The Ukrainian missile and kamikaze drone strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea (southern Ukraine) further reduced the combat potential of the Russian Navy. Ukraine continued its counteroffensive on three different axes in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast on the southern front and in the Donetsk Oblast on the eastern front.
Russia tried to distract Ukrainian forces with attacks near Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast, eastern Ukraine), Lyman (Luhansk Oblast, eastern Ukraine), and Mariyinka (Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine). These are the only areas in Ukraine where the Russian army still goes on the offensive.
Currently, Ukraine has a strategic initiative along almost the entire frontline, stretching over 1,200 kilometers.
Ukrainian breakthrough on the eastern front
The week began with a swift Ukrainian counterattack in the Avdiyivka sector, which took Russian troops by surprise in occupied Opytne (south of Avdiyivka). On 11 September, the Ukrainians liberated the northern part of the town and consolidated their positions some 13 kilometers north of Donetsk City occupied by Russia since 2014.
Opytne is located some three kilometers northwest of the Donetsk International Airport, which was completely ruined during heavy fighting in 2014-2015. The Ukrainian advance in this area allows Ukraine to strengthen the defense line near Avdiyivka, which Russian forces have been trying to capture since February 2022.
Opytne in the Donetsk Oblast (eastern Ukraine).
Map by Deep State.On 15 September, Ukraine’s Armed Forces liberated Andriyivka in the Donetsk Oblast, 13 kilometers southwest of Bakhmut.
According to the command of the Ukrainian Third Separate Assault Brigade, which liberated Andriyivka, the Russian garrison of this town was surrounded, cut off from the main forces, and destroyed.
Situation south of Donetsk’s Bakhmut. Map: Deep StateOn 17 September, Ukraine’s Armed Forces liberated Klishchiyivka in the Donetsk Oblast (eastern Ukraine), the Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported.
Klishchiyivka is located nine kilometers southwest of Bakhmut. Having pushed Russian troops out of this area, the Ukrainians gained control of the commanding heights, which made it easier for Ukrainian artillery to target Russian forces in occupied Bakhmut.
Thus, Ukraine’s Armed Forces made significant gains on the southern flank of Bakhmut, liberating two towns within one week.
The Russian command threw its best forces into holding Klishchiyivka and Andriyivka, according to the Ukrainian war reporter Yurii Butusov.
The flanks of the Russian 72nd Brigade, which defended Andriyivka, were covered by the 85th and 57th Motorized Rifle Brigades and the 31st Air Assault Brigade of the Russian Army. The Russian grouping in the area of Andriyivka was supported by significant air forces and artillery.
“However, the Third Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine demonstrated superiority over the Russians in combat capability, organization, and command. It was a victory of quality over quantity. This is how the breakthrough and destruction of the echelon defense nodes of the Russian Armed Forces is achieved,” Butusov wrote on Telegram.
Fierce battles for every meter near Andriyivka and Klishchiyivka were fought for over three months as Ukrainian troops slowly advanced in the Bakhmut sector on the eastern front. Now, the defense line of the Russian forces south of Bakhmut runs along the railroad line.
Ukraine is gradually increasing pressure on the southern and northern flanks around Bakhmut, threatening to encircle the town. While Russian counterattacks north of Bakhmut help slow the Ukrainian advance in that area, Russian defenses south of Bakhmut are close to collapsing.
According to Ukraine’s Eastern Military Group spox, Illia Yevlash, the Russians have concentrated 52,000 troops, 274 tanks, more than a thousand armored vehicles, 150 artillery systems, and more than 120 multiple rocket launchers in the Bakhmut sector. Russia has deployed about 150,000 troops to the eastern front in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv oblasts of Ukraine, Illia Yevlash said.
Despite its little tactical and strategic importance for both sides, Bakhmut became the longest and bloodiest siege of the Russian all-out war against Ukraine. The battle for this emblematic Ukrainian stronghold started in August 2022 and lasted more than nine months before the Russian army captured the town in May 2023. Russia invested a lot of effort and suffered heavy casualties to capture Bakhmut and, therefore, cannot afford to lose it without a fight.
Although Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut sector are hardly the main effort of the ongoing counteroffensive, they are an essential part of it, pinning a significant number of Russian forces in this area.
Even though the Russian army is slowly but steadily losing ground in the Bakhmut sector, the Russian command decided to redeploy some of its troops from the southern flank of Bakhmut to the Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southeastern Ukraine, where the main fighting is taking place.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian command redeployed the 83rd Assault Brigade from the outskirts of Klishchiyivka to the Zaporizhzhia Oblast on the southern front, which “suggests a deep concern about Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the Russian prioritization of the defense there,” despite the Ukrainian advances in the Bakhmut sector on the eastern front.
Grinding advance of the Ukrainian Army on the southern front
After the liberation of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 22 August, the Ukrainian Army broke through the first line of the Russian defense (out of three) and continued to advance south and southeast of the town. To reach Robotyne, a town that Russian forces turned into a heavily fortified stronghold, Ukrainian troops had to get over kilometers of dense Russian minefields.
Advancing in this area allows Ukrainian forces to begin operating beyond the densest of the Russian minefields that have held up the counteroffensive all summer long, the ISW reported.
The territory between the first and the second lines of Russian fortifications in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast may not contain such dense minefields as those that Ukrainian troops overcame on the way to Robotyne. The Russians had to leave mine-free areas to be able to move between the first and the second defensive lines.
Ukrainian troops are slowly but steadily moving forward south and southeast of Robotyne. The heaviest fighting is now taking place on the northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka (south of Robotyne) and the northwestern outskirts of Verbove (southeast of Robotyne) in the areas where the Russians built their second defensive line. The Ukrainians are pushing forward and widening the area of their control to make it hard for Russian troops to counterattack on the flanks.
The distance between Novoprokopivka and occupied Tokmak, a vital logistics hub of the Russian forces, is around 20 kilometers. When the Ukrainians push Russian troops out of their stronghold in Novoprokopivka and approach the third line of Russian fortified defense, the battle for Tokmak will begin.
Although it is still a long way from Novoprokopivka to Tokmak, the liberation of Novoprokopivka will help Ukrainian tube artillery get closer to vital Russian ground lines of communication and disrupt Russian logistics even further.
Thus, the Ukrainian advance to Novoprokopivka is the beginning of the battle of Tokmak. Success in the battle for Tokmak will allow the Ukrainian artillery to cut off Russian key supply routes in southern Ukraine and disrupt the so-called land bridge from Russia to occupied Crimea.
The liberation of Crimea, which seemed absolutely impossible just a year ago, depends on whether Ukraine can liberate the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where the Ukrainian counteroffensive is gaining momentum now.
Before the next offensive phase can begin, Ukraine must degrade Russian heavy equipment, especially the firepower system. The only way to do that is to lure Russian forces into the range of HIMARS strikes and precision-guided artillery shells by attacking the Russian defensive lines, which is exactly what the Ukrainian army is doing.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the losses of Russian self-propelled and towed artillery have soared dramatically in the summer of 2023. Ukrainian forces destroy dozens of Russian artillery systems every day (based on data published by Ukraine’s General Staff in its daily updates).
Oryx, a Dutch open-source intelligence monitoring group that documents Ukrainian and Russian military equipment losses based on photo and videographic evidence, confirms that Russian artillery losses have increased during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June, July, and August 2023 compared to previous months of Russia’s invasion.