Russian troops are falling back in Sumy Oblast in northern Ukraine.
That’s not surprising. The Kremlin has pulled no fewer than five marine and airborne brigades, regiments and divisions from Sumy and redirected them south to Donetsk Oblast, where a pair of Russian field armies are struggling to hold back a Ukrainian counterattack.
Both sides in Russia’s 43-month wider war on Ukraine have shifted troops from Sumy to Donetsk as the battle for the fortress city of Pokrovsk intensifies. But it’s evident the Russians have weakened their forces in Sumy more than the Ukrainians have.
In recent days, Ukrainian troops have ejected the Russians from the area around the villages of Kostiantynivka and Novokostiantynivka in Sumy just a few hundred meters from the border with Russia, analysis group Deep State reported Sunday.
“There are achievements in the Sumy region,” Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Sept. 12.
It seems the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade is the main Russian formation in the vicinity of Kostiantynivka and Novokostiantynivka. It’s the last large marine unit left in Sumy after the Kremlin concentrated five marine regiments and brigades east of Pokrovsk in recent weeks.
Pokrovsk is one of the last major Ukrainian strongholds between hundreds of thousands of Russian troops and the main Kramatorsk-Sloviansk urban center in western Donetsk. If Pokrovsk falls, all of Donetsk may fall.
Donetsk is the priority. And the Kremlin seems to be willing to risk its gains in Sumy to make further gains in Donetsk. In addition to moving the marines to the east at the expense of the north, Russian commanders have shifted existing field armies in the sector surrounding Pokrovsk.
East of Pokrovsk, three Russian field armies and corps—the 8th and 51st Combined Arms Armies and the 68th Army Corps—face around nine Ukrainian regiments and brigades plus a few separate battalions, some of them under the command of the new 1st Azov Corps.
Russian horde
Counting the newly arrived marines, there may be around 80,000 Russians and perhaps half as many Ukrainians along a stretch of the front line that’s no longer than 25 km.
Ukrainian forces may have an advantage in drones, however. Russian marine commanders are reluctant to deploy their armored vehicles toward Pokrovsk “due to the enormous amount of [Ukrainian] UAVs in the air, Ukrainian drone operator Kriegsforscher explained.
The Russians are still reeling from the 1st Azov Corps’ recent counterattack against a Russian motor rifle brigade that infiltrated under-manned Ukrainian lines northeast of Pokrovsk last month; even with all those reinforcements, they’ve yet to regain the momentum in the sector.
And that middle performance so far may be costing them in Sumy as the Ukrainians take advantage of new gaps in Russian lines.
This was a predictable outcome. In robbing Sumy to reinforce Donetsk, the Kremlin gambled the Ukrainians had finally exhausted their reserves and could no longer respond in kind in Donetsk—or exploit Russian weakness in Sumy.
The gamble hasn’t paid off—at least not yet. At least one observer expected this would happen. The Russians “actually thought Ukraine was out of infantry,” American analyst Andrew Perpetua mused.
While it’s true Ukrainian brigades are struggling with a shortage of trained infantry, there’s a big difference between Ukraine have too few trigger-pullers to comfortably perform every possible mission … and having so few that it’s impossible to respond to large-scale Russian moves like we’re seeing in Donetsk and Sumy.
According to Perpetua, Ukrainian commanders had made the deliberate decision to leave some trenches empty—potentially including some around Pokrovsk—in order to buy time for certain brigades, such as the 95th Air Assault Brigade, to rebuild.
“It was a sacrifice,” Perpetua said. “Sacrifice ground for time while refitting and then you can attack later.”
It’s possible these rebuilt brigades are the ones giving the Russians so much trouble now—counterattacking in Donetsk and Sumy, and pushing back the Russians in the latter oblast. The 95th Air Assault Brigade, it’s worth noting, is on the front line in Sumy.
