In the area of the village of Uspenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on the Kurakhove front, Ukrainian forces are at risk of encirclement by Russian troops, says Pavlo Lakiichuk, the head of security programs at the Global Strategy Center “Strategy XXI,” according to Espreso.

Kurakhove’s fall would threaten a key Ukrainian strongpoint that helps protect the strategic city of Pokrovsk. The industrial city’s position along the H15 highway makes it crucial for Ukrainian logistics and defense of the western Donetsk Oblast, while its industrial facilities have served as important fortified positions for Ukrainian forces throughout the war.

Lakiichuk says the situation is critical on the Kurakhove front, north of Kurakhove, north of the Kurakhiv Reservoir, and directly to the south of the Kurakhiv Reservoir.

“The enemy is really pressing. But the worst situation is further south, in the Uspenivka area, where Ukrainian soldiers could be encircled. They will have to retreat,” he believes.

According to Lakiichuk, Ukrainian forces will most likely retreat from Kurakhove, and the Russians expect their withdrawal. He analyzed the dynamics of combat on the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk fronts over the past week and concluded that the peak of the fighting on the Kurakhove front occurred 5-7 days ago, and now the intensity of the battles has effectively leveled off.

“This indicates that the Russians are trying to shift the main direction of the fighting to the Pokrovsk front, clearly believing they can handle Kurakhove with the forces they have concentrated there,” the expert stated.

He compared the current situation with battles for Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast a year ago, where the Russians lost 500-600 soldiers daily during intense “meat assaults.”

At the beginning of this year, during the battles for Avdiivka, the invaders lost 700-800 soldiers per day. Now, the average daily numbers are from 1,500 to 2,000 soldiers in the last few days during the most intense battles.

According to Lakiichuk, this reflects the growing gap between Russia’s mobilization plans and the actual figures of soldiers needed on the front.

He explained that the Russian army fighting against Ukraine includes both mobilized soldiers from temporarily occupied Crimea, who are sent to the front unprepared, and those who have completed basic training or even undergone unit-level combat coordination.

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