Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) reports that Russia is preparing a training-combat launch of an RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile in the early hours of Monday.

The launch is expected to take place from the town of Svobodny in Sverdlovsk Oblast, home to the 42nd Tagil Missile Division of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, which operates three Yars-equipped regiments.

If carried out, this would mark the first publicly confirmed Yars ICBM test since 2019, when a launch was conducted from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. According to HUR, the missile will carry a non-nuclear training warhead and has an estimated range of over 10,000 kilometers.

Ukrainian officials interpret the launch as a deliberate show of force aimed at intimidating not only Ukraine but also NATO and EU member states.

Putin leans on intimidation, not innovation

The planned Yars test follows renewed attention on Russia’s claims about the so-called Oreshnik missile complex, reportedly used in a strike on Dnipro in November 2024.

President Vladimir Putin described Oreshnik as a cutting-edge hypersonic ballistic missile, but military experts — including analysts at the Institute for the Study of War — believe it is likely a rebranded RS-26 Rubezh, a previously shelved ICBM. These analysts argue the system’s reappearance serves more as psychological warfare than a genuine leap in capability.

Seen in this light, the upcoming Yars launch appears consistent with a broader Kremlin strategy: using strategic weapons tests not primarily for military development, but to exert geopolitical pressure and manipulate perceptions of strength.