The current distance between Russian flanks around Pokrovsk has shrunk to less than 15 kilometers, military expert and former Security Service officer Ivan Stupak says.
Ukrainian forces have defended the strategic city in Donetsk Oblast for over a year. But with nearby Dobropillia now under threat, Russian troops may soon complete the encirclement. Capturing Pokrovsk would represent a major advance toward full Russian control of Donetsk, one of Moscow’s key objectives in the war.
“Their objective is clear — to capture Pokrovsk through encirclement, not through costly urban warfare. They’re trying to create a ‘cauldron,’” Stupak told Radio NV.
He noted that Russian advances began as early as August 2024, with an assault expected by September. Yet only now, a year later, has Russia come close to surrounding the city.
Critical decision looms for Ukrainian forces
Stupak warned that if the gap between Russian positions closes further—from 15 km to under 10 kilometers—Ukrainian forces may be compelled to withdraw from Pokrovsk to prevent a catastrophic loss.
“We saw this before in Vuhledar. It could’ve been held longer, but once surrounded on three sides, our troops had to retreat urgently—sometimes abandoning equipment.
During that retreat, Russian shelling from both flanks caused heavy losses. We must avoid repeating that mistake in Pokrovsk.”
Humanitarian access severed
Donetsk Regional Governor Vadym Filashkin confirmed that entry into Pokrovsk is now nearly impossible due to continuous Russian shelling.
“Only 1,370 residents remain in the city. We can only access it with military escorts, and we rely on our defenders to help evacuate civilians,” he said in a national broadcast, as reported by RBC-Ukraine.
Filashkin added that no humanitarian or medical aid can be delivered. Despite the risks, municipal workers and police continue to operate inside the city to assist with evacuations.
A similar situation is unfolding in Kostiantynivka, where 8,261 residents remain under daily shelling.
According to Pokrovsk News, 1,342 people still reside in Pokrovsk, and 470 in nearby Rodynske. With evacuation routes blocked and humanitarian access cut, many civilians are fleeing on foot toward safer areas.
Ukraine denies full encirclement claims
In late July, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that a Russian sabotage group had briefly infiltrated Pokrovsk but was quickly repelled by Ukrainian forces.
The Ukrainian General Staff rejected claims of full encirclement, stating that troops still control defensive lines around the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad urban zone and that measures have been taken to reinforce the sector.
Russian focus shifts to Rodynske
According to DeepState analysts, Russian forces are now concentrating efforts on Rodynske, a town positioned behind Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. Capturing Rodynske would open a new axis of attack, potentially accelerating the encirclement.