Ukrainian farmers watched their southern fields turn to dust this summer. A late and cold spring combined with the worst drought in decades slashed grain production by 11% and threatened the country with $1 billion in lost export revenue.
But bad weather alone could not have been overcome if there hadn’t been another, more menacing trouble: the war.
The harvest crisis reveals how bad weather, combined with destroyed irrigation systems in the central and eastern regions and war raising fertilizer prices, is a recipe for a perfect storm.
When the water stopped flowing
Kherson Oblast tells the story in stark numbers. The region lost its entire 55,000-hectare winter crop—fields that once produced 8-10 tons per hectare now struggle to reach 1-2 tons in the parched earth left behind after Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam in 2023.
“If these regions had irrigation, we could have avoided the losses. They could have produced 3-4 million tons of grain and oilseeds,” Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Vysotskyi said, commenting about the agricultural wasteland that was once Ukraine’s grain powerhouse.
The destruction rippled across southern Ukraine. Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv oblasts watched yields crash 30-50% as irrigation systems dried up and farmers calculated whether it was worth planting crops that might never grow.
The great shift north
The ongoing war is redrawing Ukraine’s farming map in real time.
Northern and western regions stepped up to fill the gap, achieving record yields: Lviv Oblast: 6.64 tons per hectare; Khmelnytskyi Oblast: 6.47 tons per hectare; Chernivtsi Oblast: 6.40 tons per hectare.
But geography can’t replace infrastructure.
Acting First Vice President of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences Ihor Hrynyk explained that due to rising resource prices, farmers are forced to reduce the amount of fertilizers applied, not provide adequate plant protection, cut back on agrotechnical measures, and abandon irrigation.
All this is making the crops sitting ducks for diseases and pests.
The billion-dollar squeeze
The World Bank predicts global grain prices will fall 11% later in 2025, creating a potential double squeeze that could cost Ukraine $900 million to $1 billion in export revenue.
For now, Deputy Economy Minister Vysotskyi notes prices “for the farmer remain high, really good,” but this may not last as global markets adjust to oversupply elsewhere.
Ukrainian consumers brace for higher food costs
The production drop threatens to increase domestic food prices just as Ukrainian families struggle with wartime inflation. Bread prices typically rise when wheat harvests fall, and an 11% grain reduction could force Ukraine to import more expensive grain or ration domestic supplies to maintain export revenues.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, fruit and vegetable prices have decreased during the summer, which has also helped slow inflation.
However, these prices are expected to rise soon as Summer gives way to Autumn and the harvest period is over.
Corn to the rescue—maybe
Late-season corn crops growing in northern regions offer Ukraine’s best hope for offsetting grain losses.
The corn harvest should reach about 27 million tons, matching last year’s levels thanks to better rainfall in Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Kyiv oblasts.
National Academy data shows average wheat yields crashed from 4.3-4.5 tons per hectare last year to just 3.1 tons per hectare in 2025.
However, corn’s resilience means the overall grain harvest may shrink by only 3-7% instead of the feared double-digit decline.
Russia profits from Ukraine’s agricultural struggles
Ukraine’s reduced grain exports create opportunities that Russia has quickly exploited.
Moscow continues to steal grain from occupied Ukrainian territories while Ukraine’s drought-damaged harvest shrinks the country’s ability to compete in global markets.
The timing benefits Russia’s broader strategy of using food as leverage. Russia previously withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal that allowed safe passage for Ukrainian exports, and has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian agricultural infrastructure throughout the war.
For Ukrainian farmers counting their losses, the drought represents not just a natural disaster but another blow to the country’s ability to fund its defense through agricultural exports—revenue Moscow would prefer to capture for itself.