Ukraine is carrying out a multibillion-dollar arms buildup program, funded by Europe. The plan is seen as the best chance to defend against Russia amid reduced American aid and uncertainty over Western security guarantees, reports The New York Times.

Best security guarantee for Ukraine? 

Under this plan, the focus will be on developing Ukraine’s domestic defense industry. In particular, at the end of August, Ukraine began production of its long-range cruise missile, the Flamingo.

This domestically produced missile has a flight range exceeding 3,000 km and carries a 1,150 kg warhead. The company that designed them, FirePoint, also manufactures the FP-series drones. It is now actively scaling the Flamingo project alongside its drone production. FP-1 drones have been used against targets in Russia since at least 2024.

According to Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, Ukraine’s own missile program could be the country’s best security guarantee.

“The whole model is that we get contracts, written agreements, that state we will have this number of weapons provided to Ukraine by this year, from the United States, from the Europeans,” Skrypchenko said.

He is confident that Moscow can be deterred from a new attack if Ukraine possesses several hundred long-range ballistic missiles.

Technological advantage

The Ukrainian army is unlikely to match Russia in troop numbers, which is why increasing weapons production makes sense. However, it is still unclear how far this military buildup can go. European countries are already facing budgetary difficulties, which could limit the level of support Ukraine expects.

Building security shield from Russia 

Discussions over security guarantees have not yet produced significant results. Meanwhile, Russia is attempting to disrupt them, demanding a voice in certain matters, the report emphasizes.

This is why Ukraine is focusing on developing its own security guarantees. Producing Ukrainian weapons and purchasing Western arms are areas over which Russia can have almost no influence.

“This is not something the Russians can really discuss. That’s our advantage,” Aliona Hetmanchuk, Head of Ukraine’s Mission to NATO, told journalists.

Planning the production scales

Recent pledges from Germany and Norway to provide up to $10 billion in military and civilian aid to Ukraine next year indicate that Europe is ready to meet this challenge. These large sums mark a turning point, as previously Western partners provided smaller, short-term financial allocations.

Analysts told journalists that larger financial packages could help Ukraine better plan the long-term task of arming its army.

Meanwhile, Russia is showing no sign of intention to end the war in Ukraine. In recent months, Putin has only:

• intensified its attacks on Ukraine, killing more civilians than in 2024
• deployed nearly 100,000 troops to Donetsk Oblast
• refused to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
• continued strengthening ties with its main economic partner, China.