Russian forces have likely suffered approximately 950,000 casualties since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with 2025 potentially becoming the deadliest year yet for Moscow’s troops, according to a UK Defence Intelligence update released on 3 May 2025.

“This would be the costliest year of the war in terms of Russian personnel, continuing the year-on-year trend of casualty increases,” the assessment states.

The intelligence update reveals that Russia has sustained approximately 160,000 casualties in just the first four months of 2025. According to Ukrainian General Staff reporting, average daily Russian casualties during April 2025 exceeded 1,200, totaling approximately 36,000 for the month – slightly down from March’s daily average of 1,300.

Staggering losses for minimal gains

Despite the enormous human toll, Russia has made minimal territorial progress. Forbes calculated that Russian forces captured approximately 68 square miles of Ukrainian territory in April, at a cost of over 36,600 casualties.

“Incredibly, staggering losses in people and equipment haven’t yet crippled the Russian military in Ukraine,” Forbes’ David Axe wrote on 1 May 2025.

At the current rate, Forbes estimates it would take Russia until the year 2256 – 231 years – to fully occupy Ukraine, with a theoretical cost of 101 million troops.

Russia adapts while intensifying civilian attacks

Despite these losses, Russia continues recruiting approximately 30,000 new troops monthly. The Russian presence in Ukraine has grown to about 600,000 troops – the highest level since the invasion began.

Simultaneously, Russia has intensified attacks on Ukrainian civilians. On 02 May, Russian forces launched 17 thermobaric drones on Kharkiv, injuring 51 civilians including two young girls, according to the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office.

The UK assessment concludes that despite continued heavy losses, “Russia has not been able to translate continued heavy losses into significant advances in Ukraine” in 2025.