Russia has faced heavy losses in its ongoing offensive on Avdiivka, a report by the UK intelligence states.

According to the report, Russia has “likely lost around 200 armored vehicles” over the past three weeks while assaulting the Donbas town of Avdiivka. The high casualty rate is “likely due to a relative effectiveness of Ukraine’s modern hand-held anti-armor weapons, mines, uncrewed aerial vehicle-dropped munitions, and precision artillery systems.”

Given these equipment losses, the report says “Russian forces have highly likely switched to conducting dismounted infantry-based assaults in this sector.” Just as Ukraine faced “similar tactical challenges” on the offensive this summer, Russia’s armored attacks on Avdiivka across open ground have resulted in major casualties.

The report estimates “Russia has suffered several thousand personnel casualties around the town since the start of October 2023.” Despite the losses, it concludes “Russia’s leadership continues to demonstrate a willingness to accept heavy personnel losses for marginal territorial gains.”

Russia’s assault on Avdiivka

• On 4 November, ISW reported that Russian forces are reportedly building up for a “third massive assault” on Avdiivka, eastern Ukraine. There have been confirmed gains north of the city, with ongoing intensive assaults,
• Previously, ISW said that Russian forces in the Avdiivka area are altering their tactics, decreasing ground attacks, and emphasizing heavy artillery, possibly preparing for another infantry-led wave of assault.
• The UK intel report confirms earlier OSINT data, which reveals that Russia’s assault on Avdiivka has been costly, with 197-215 combat vehicles damaged or destroyed in the offensive.
• As well, the Ukrainian military claimed on 29 October that Russia lost 6,500 soldiers near Avdiivka in October 2023.
• On 22 October, Russian troops were reported to be using new tactics near Avdiivka, including digging tunnels and using robots in assaults.
• Russia launched a massive offensive on Avdiivka on 18 October,  described as one of Russia’s biggest assaults on the city since 2014.