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Benjamin Looijen


UK intel: Ukraine’s unconventional warfare reshapes Black Sea power balance

Although outnumbered, Ukrainian forces have managed to restrict Russian operational maneuverability on the waves.
Russian military corruption Moskva flagman
The former flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, ”Moskva”, costing roughly $750 million, was sunk by Ukraine in 2022. Photo: Osinttechnical/twitter
UK intel: Ukraine’s unconventional warfare reshapes Black Sea power balance

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s leadership almost certainly perceived the Russian Federation Navy and the Black Sea Fleet as integral components of their maritime power. 

However, as noted by British military analysts of the UK Ministry of Defense, after three years of war, Russia’s naval capabilities in the Black Sea have been significantly constrained through highly effective Ukrainian operations.

This transformation underscores Ukraine’s ability to challenge a superior naval force through unconventional warfare. While Russia retains strike capabilities, its operational freedom in the Black Sea has been drastically curtailed, demonstrating the evolving nature of modern warfare, Ukraine’s resilience and resourcefulness.

Pre-invasion, the Ukrainian Navy was vastly outnumbered by the Black Sea Fleet and limited to a small number of major warships and coastal defense vessels. Throughout the war, the Ukrainian Navy has been unable to operate conventionally in the Black Sea.

Since 24 February 2022, however, Ukrainian forces have destroyed or damaged at least 24 Russian vessels operating in the Black Sea. This includes the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet flagship, Slava-Class cruiser ”Moskva”, which had previously been described as a cutting-edge air defense platform.

As a result, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been forced to move all of its major assets from its historic base in Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in the Eastern Black Sea. Russian units operating in the region have also been forced to adapt their tactics and change the areas in which they operate.

Despite Russia’s Black Sea Fleet currently being limited to the Eastern Black Sea, it retains the ability to conduct long range strikes into Ukraine in support of land operations.

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