On 3 October, the British Defense Ministry released an intelligence update indicating that a Russian missile strike on the merchant vessel Aya carrying grain in the Black Sea on 11 September was likely unintentional.
Last month, Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia launched two Kh-22/32 cruise missiles from a Tu-22M3 bomber over the Black Sea towards Zmiinyi Island. Later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber fired a missile at a civilian cargo vessel near Zmiinyi (Snake) Island in the Black Sea, with no casualties reported. He highlighted that Russia’s actions threaten global food security by targeting civilian vessels, implying that the strike was intentional.
The British report notes that the missile involved in the attack was almost certainly a Kh-22 (NATO reporting name AS-4 Kitchen) anti-ship missile, launched by a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE bomber operating in the area. British defense intelligence suggests that a detonation failure likely prevented catastrophic damage to the ship.
The UK Defense Ministry wrote:
- On 11 September 2024, the Merchant Vessel (MV) Aya was struck by a missile in the Black Sea as it transited south from the Ukrainian port of Odesa having been loaded with more than 26 thousand tons of grain bound for Egypt. It is almost certain that the missile was an AS-4 KITCHEN anti-ship missile launched by a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE Russian bomber that was operating in the area at the time. It is a realistic possibility that a detonation failure avoided catastrophic damage.
- It is unlikely that the MV Aya was the intended target for this mission and was likely struck due to poor targeting procedures from Russian pilots using an aging munition. Russia has regularly attacked targets along Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, including Zmiinyi (Snake) Island, as they attempt to disrupt export activity and degrade any military assets in the area.
- Following the loss of a BACKFIRE in April this year, Russia has almost certainly been more wary with their strike operations in the Black Sea. It is a realistic possibility this incident occurred due to pilots incorrectly identifying MV Aya as their target in haste, wanting to depart the area immediately after launch for fear of being targeted by a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile.
- The KITCHEN missile has consistently underperformed in the Ukraine conflict. Launching a supersonic cruise missile on an incorrect heading against a likely erroneous target in international waters demonstrates extremely poor and irresponsible aviation practice.
Related:
- Russia’s war devastates Black Sea ecosystems and communities
- Hague tribunal begins hearings on Ukraine’s Black and Azov seas dispute with Russia
- WSJ: Ukrainian special forces who liberated Zmiinyi (Snake) Island were lost at sea on a rubber boat for more than a day
- Russian strategic bomber fires missile at civilian cargo vessel en route to Egypt near Zmiinyi (Snake) Island