In his recent YouTube video, Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen states the Trump administration “doesn’t really understand what’s going on” regarding Ukraine and lacks a realistic peace plan, despite claiming to have one.
Nielsen advises against overreacting to Trump’s statements for now, noting that the key issue is not what he claims will end the war, but what happens when his approach fails. He predicts a “messy” process in the coming months, leading to the realization that his strategy doesn’t work – at which point, the real developments will begin.
Trump has no plan or goals beyond ceasefire
Recently, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump have made statements about concessions Ukraine must make, including giving up territory and receiving no American security guarantees after peace.
Nielsen argues such statements reveal fundamental misunderstandings about the Russo-Ukrainian war, though they do indicate Trump’s envisioned process for the coming months.
According to Nielsen, Trump’s primary motivation is simply stopping the fighting and ending human suffering. Beyond that, “it’s pretty clear that he doesn’t really have any preferences about what that deal would actually say.”
Moreover, Trump “does not have any particular desired outcomes that he wants to see or any specific conditions that must be met for the war to be called a success,” according to the analyst.
Nielsen finds this remarkable, noting that in military theory, “war is the continuation of politics by other means,” yet “Donald Trump does not have any political goals with the things that are happening in Ukraine now.”
Trump thinks Ukraine has no agency, sidelines EU
Trump views the US and Russia as the most important players in peace negotiations, Nielsen says. Other actors like Ukraine and European NATO allies “might be consulted at some level, but the real decisions will be made between himself and Putin.”
Nielsen suggests Trump believes he can dictate terms to Ukraine and “then they will do as he says” while focusing negotiations on persuading Russia to stop fighting.
“Trump doesn’t really believe that Ukraine has agency,” says the analyst.
The analyst points out a contradiction: the US wants Europeans to take greater responsibility for security while excluding them from security negotiations.
While Trump sees the war as “just a matter of inconvenience,” Nielsen emphasizes that for Ukraine and EU countries, it represents a critical national security issue with clear political goals.
“The Ukrainians have been fighting this war for three years because they believe that this is a cause that it’s worth dying for. And that’s not going to stop just because America has changed its mind,” Nielsen argues.
Trump’s wrong assumptions
Nielsen identifies two key misconceptions in Trump’s thinking. First, Trump overestimates America’s role in supporting Ukraine, believing withdrawal of US support would cause Ukraine’s collapse and give him leverage over Zelenskyy.
“The reality is that European support is already bigger than American support and the Europeans could increase that support even more,” Nielsen counters, adding that many critical weapons come from Ukraine’s domestic production.
Second, Trump overestimates Russia’s military strength. Nielsen notes Russian advances have slowed to “minimal gains” while they face armored vehicle shortages and resort to more primitive tools, even introducing donkeys for logistics on the front line.
Russia doesn’t have endless resources, its economy nearing tipping point, expert says
“If the European countries continue supporting Ukraine, then they might still be able to win the war even without American support. […] It take a longer time. It would demand more casualties. But it’s not impossible,” the analyst suggests.
Nielsen notes that while Russia and Ukraine have clear goals and strategies, “the West just hasn’t had a plan.” EU leaders must now “define a comprehensive vision for a future security order for Europe” and determine Ukraine’s role in deterring future Russian aggression, the analyst argues.
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