US President Donald Trump warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that backing out of a critical minerals agreement would create “big, big problems,” Reuters reported on 30 March.

“He’s trying to back out of the rare earth deal and if he does that he’s got some problems, big, big problems,” Trump told reporters.

Trump also dismissed Ukraine’s NATO membership in the future, claiming,“He wants to be a member of NATO, but he’s never going to be a member of NATO. He understands that.”

Zelensky said on 28 March that he would not sign a minerals deal that interferes with Ukraine’s plans to join the European Union.

The comments follow months of complex negotiations between the two countries. On 28 March, President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko had received a new agreement from US Finance Minister Scott Bessent. Zelenskyy noted the new draft contained elements “previously rejected” by Ukraine amd claimed that he would not sign a minerals deal that interferes with Ukraine’s plans to join the European Union.

The American side reportedly had taken “several steps backward” compared to the framework agreement previously agreed upon by both parties.

Bloomberg and the Financial Times reported previously, the new draft agreement covers all natural resources, including oil and gas, as well as the Ukraine’s main energy assets.

According to the document, the US presidential administration is demanding a “right of first refusal” for investments in all infrastructure and resource projects.

If the project is approved, Kyiv will transfer 50% of revenues from new infrastructure and natural resource projects to a special investment fund. According to the document, the United States wants to be the first to claim the profits transferred to this fund.

Kyiv is concerned that the deal could not only undermine its aspirations to join the European Union, but also require Ukraine to repay all US military and economic support provided since the beginning of the war, according to Bloomberg.

Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, deputy head of the tax committee in Ukraine’s parliament, said the newest version of the agreement is disadvantageous for Ukraine.

According to Zheleznyak, the deal would establish a five-person fund management body where three US representatives would have veto power. The proposal also extends to Ukrainian oil and gas resources. Washington considers aid provided to Kyiv since 2022 as its contribution to implementing the agreement.

The path of the minerals deal

On 12 February, Zelenskyy announced that US Finance Minister Scott Bessent had brought to Ukraine a draft agreement providing access to Ukrainian minerals worth $500 billion in exchange for Washington’s assistance. Ukraine then revised the draft memorandum and forwarded it to the American side on 14 February.

During the Munich Security Conference on 15 February, Zelenskyy said he had not allowed the agreement to be signed because it wasn’t ready to protect Ukrainian interests. On 22 February, five officials working on the document said that the new version of the agreement was stricter than the previous one and envisioned 100% American ownership.

The US and Ukrainian presidents were expected to sign the minerals agreement during a White House meeting on 28 February. Instead, a dispute erupted where Trump reportedly told Zelenskyy that either Kyiv signs the agreement or “you will fight alone.” Zelenskyy then left the White House earlier than scheduled after the heated discussion in the White House. Trump later posted on his Truth Social platform that the Ukrainian leader could return when he was “ready for peace.”

On 3 March, Trump said he didn’t consider the minerals agreement “dead.” Later, during a meeting between Ukrainian and American delegations in Jeddah on 11 March, Ukraine proposed immediately signing the minerals agreement, but the US took a pause. President Zelenskyy later suggested the US might prefer to sign a detailed agreement directly, without a framework agreement.

Read also:

• FT: Ukraine’s officials call US minerals deal “robbery” as Washington expands demands
• Trump now wants entire Ukrainian resource revenue in updated minerals pact offer
• Zelenskyy: Ukraine to consider US minerals deal if it’s linked to future aid
• The Telegraph: New US mineral deal threatens Ukraine’s EU membership prospects
• Ukrainian deputy slams minerals deal giving US exclusive resource rights on titanium and lithium