Iran’s escalating conflict with Israel threatens to disrupt the Islamic republic’s ballistic missile supplies to Russia, Western officials tell The Telegraph.

Tehran appears poised to prioritize its own stockpile over promised deliveries to Moscow as hostilities intensify.

“The recent hostilities that we’ve seen between Israel and Iran certainly will negatively impact Iran’s future donations, specifically missiles,” a senior NATO official said.

The assessment suggests Russia will need to either increase domestic missile production or rely more heavily on North Korea for supplies.

According to estimates provided in the report, Iran’s missile stockpile stands at 1,445 out of an estimated 3,000 missiles. The country has launched 555 missiles, while Israel destroyed 1,000, leaving approximately 10 missiles remaining as of the reported “Day of war” starting 13 June.

The NATO source indicated Iran’s support for Russia’s production of Iranian-designed attack drones could also diminish. However, this development may pose less concern for Moscow, which now manufactures Shahed-type one-way attack drones domestically.

Iran and Russia reached an agreement earlier in 2025 for Tehran to supply ballistic missiles for Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. The two countries have also signed a defense pact committing to joint military development.

The NATO official suggested Moscow would likely exploit Israel’s destruction of Iran’s air defense systems “opportunistically” to market versions of its S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries. Russian intelligence officers could be dispatched to Tehran to analyze data from Israel’s recent F-35 missions over Iranian territory.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s defense minister indicated direct presidential talks may be necessary to achieve a ceasefire. Rustem Umerov, who has led Kyiv’s delegation in two rounds of unsuccessful talks with Russian diplomats, said future negotiations would need to focus on arranging a meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin.

“During this time, we could achieve some agreements on a ceasefire,” Umerov said on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague. The statement represents a shift from Ukraine’s previous push for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire before leader-level talks.

Putin has suggested a third round of direct talks between the two countries could occur before the end of June. Neither president has ruled out meeting as part of Donald Trump’s efforts to end the three-year war.

Estonia’s intelligence service reported on 20 June that Russian drone attacks on Ukraine might decrease due to Middle East tensions. President Zelenskyy told Sky News on 25 June that Russia ordered Shahed attack drones from Iran before the full-scale invasion began, with Tehran subsequently transferring thousands of these drones to Moscow.

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