Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia could launch an attack on a NATO country within five years to test the alliance’s resolve.

In an interview with chief presenter of Sky News Mark Austin, Zelenskyy said Vladimir Putin might use such an attack as a strategic probe of NATO’s unity.

When pressed on whether Russia could strike within months, Zelenskyy stated he did not believe Putin “is ready” for immediate action. However, he expressed concern about Russia’s future military capabilities, saying that “starting from 2030, Putin can have significantly greater capabilities.”

The Ukrainian leader argued that his country is currently constraining Russia’s military preparations.

“Today, Ukraine is holding him up, he has no time to drill the army,” Zelenskyy said, adding that Russian soldiers are “all getting annihilated and wiped out at the battlefield.” He suggested Putin requires “a pause, he needs sanctions to be lifted, he needs a drilled army.”

NATO defense spending increase “very slow”

Zelenskyy criticized NATO’s defense spending timeline as insufficient for the threat level. Plans for NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 are “very slow,” according to the Ukrainian president.

The spending target breaks down into 3.5% of GDP for direct defense and 1.5% for related areas including infrastructure and cybersecurity. This 5% level matches Cold War-era NATO investment levels.

This increase in defense spending is initiated by Trump, who, however, claims the US itself should not be held to the same standard, citing America’s long-standing support and covering nearly all NATO costs.

Trump criticized countries like Spain and Canada for low defense contributions, with Spain refusing to commit to the 5% target and Canada allegedly relying on US protection without adequate spending.

Some Eastern European countries, including Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland, are already increasing defense budgets significantly, emphasizing the existential threat posed by Russia, as they are located close to it.

Additionally, on potential peace negotiations, Zelenskyy expressed support for both ceasefire talks and peace discussions. However, he avoided committing to territorial concessions, suggesting instead that military pressure and sanctions would compel Putin to negotiate.

The Ukrainian leader highlighted gaps in international sanctions enforcement as Russia continues accessing “components for missiles and drones” from various countries, including the UK.

Previous warnings of Russia’s potential NATO attack in 2030

Earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also indicated Russians could potentially attack NATO within five years, though he assured there was no immediate threat and promised a “devastating response” to any such attack.

Rutte emphasized three priorities for NATO:

• continued support for Ukraine
• increased defense spending
• development of defense industry capabilities to ensure effective protection

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius highlighted that Russia currently produces more weapons and ammunition in a few months than all EU countries combined produce in a year, and that by the end of the decade, Putin could strengthen Russia’s military to a level capable of striking NATO.

He emphasized ongoing hybrid threats to Germany, including infrastructure attacks, maritime activities, social media disinformation, and political influence operations.