The global trend of nuclear disarmament that began after the Cold War is reversing, with nearly all nine nuclear-armed states pursuing intensive modernization programs in 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The historical pattern of gradual dismantlement outpacing new deployments is ending, according to SIRPI. The institute notes that the global nuclear inventory will likely grow in coming years.

“The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,” said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program. “Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.”

China’s nuclear expansion continues at the fastest pace globally. SIPRI estimates China now possesses at least 600 warheads, representing growth of approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023.

The country completed or neared completion of around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos across six regions – three desert areas in northern China and three mountainous zones in the east – by January 2025.

China could potentially match Russian or American ICBM numbers by decade’s end, though SIPRI projects China’s maximum 1,500 warheads by 2035 would still represent only one-third of current Russian and American stockpiles, which control approximately 90% of all nuclear weapons.

China currently holds third place globally in nuclear warhead stockpiles.

Current global nuclear distribution shows Russia leading with 5,459 warheads, followed by the United States with 5,177. Britain possesses 225 warheads, France 290, India 180, Pakistan 170, North Korea 50, and Israel 90.

The United Kingdom plans to increase its warhead ceiling following the 2023 Integrated Review Refresh. The Labour government elected in July 2024 committed to building four new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and delivering nuclear arsenal upgrades, despite facing operational and financial challenges.

France continued developing third-generation submarines and new air-launched cruise missiles in 2024, while upgrading existing systems including improved ballistic missiles with new warhead modifications.

India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal and developed new delivery systems in 2024, according to SIPRI. The country’s new canisterized missiles may carry nuclear warheads during peacetime and potentially multiple warheads per missile once operational. Pakistan also developed new delivery systems and accumulated fissile material, suggesting potential arsenal expansion over the coming decade.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith warned that artificial intelligence and other technologies accelerate crisis decision-making processes, potentially increasing the likelihood of nuclear conflicts arising from miscommunication, misunderstandings, or technical failures.

Smith argued that technological complexity makes determining arms race leadership more elusive than previously. “The old largely numerical formulas of arms control will no longer suffice,” he said.