Exclusives

The enduring lessons of Stalin’s wartime endgame. If Western efforts to contain Soviet expansionism taught us anything, it is that the only way to deter totalitarian thugs is to confront them.

500km game-changer: Ukraine’s ballistic missile breakthrough can alter war dynamics. As Western fear of Russian escalation continues limiting missile strikes into Russia, Ukraine ramps up its domestic arms production to counter Russia’s Iskanders

Ukraine lobbies US to stop “protecting Russia,” allow 300km deep strikes. Ukraine’s military strategists are faced with a task no less formidable than striking the Crimean Bridge: American fears of escalation. The solution? A catalog of military targets.

Military

• Zelenskyy dismisses Air Force Commander Oleshchuk, Kryvonozhko takes over as acting chief. Zelenskyy has dismissed Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk after three years of service. Lieutenant General Anatolii Kryvonozhko will be an acting commander.
• Russia’s Kursk authorities form armed volunteer group for security in evacuated areas, amid ongoing looting. Russian authorities in Kursk Oblast have created the “Bars – Kursk” armed volunteer group to maintain order in evacuated areas. This move follows Ukraine’s advance into the region and reports of widespread looting by both locals and Russian military personnel in Russian-controlled areas.
• Le Monde: Russian mercenary group leaves Burkina Faso to defend Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Le Monde reports that the Russian private military company Bear Brigade, which arrived in Burkina Faso in May to protect the junta, is now withdrawing to defend the Kursk region against a Ukrainian offensive.
• Syrskyi: Ukraine advances 2 km in Kursk Oblast as Pokrovsk remains most challenging sector. Ukraine’s top general, Syrskyi, states that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 2 km into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, gaining control of 5 km² over the past day, while facing challenges in the Pokrovsk sector, Donetsk Oblast.
• Deep State: Russia captures Korenevo village in Kursk Oblast. The village of Korenevo in Kursk Oblast has fallen under Russian control, Deep State reports, as Russian forces continue to make progress in multiple direction, including Donetsk Oblast
• Drone attack on airport and factory in Russia’s Kaluga. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports engaging 18 unmanned aerial vehicles in multiple oblasts, with Kaluga experiencing strikes near its airport and a former Volkswagen plant.
• ISW: Russian military pursues dual tactical efforts around Pokrovsk. Russian forces are executing a two-pronged tactical effort to create favorable conditions for an assault on Pokrovsk, according to a new ISW report.

Intelligence and technology

• Ukraine develops SkyFall kamikaze drone for 60 km strikes. Ukraine’s defense industry is developing SkyFall, a kamikaze drone system with vertical takeoff capability, 40-60 km range, and 5 kg warhead, for the use against armored vehicles and fortifications.
• US military placed $ 1.3 bn order for Javelin missiles, with over 4,000 of them for Ukraine. Lockheed Martin and Raytheon’s joint venture secured a $1.3 billion contract to produce Javelin missiles, with plans to increase annual production to 3,960 units by 2026.

International

• Ukraine cuts secure phone line with Moscow after 26 years. Ukraine’s government has terminated a secure direct phone line with Moscow, established in 1998, as part of its ongoing efforts to sever ties with Russia amid the ongoing war.
• Romanian Parliament to debate Patriot system donation to Ukraine in autumn session. Romania prepares to donate Patriot missile system to Ukraine, submitting legislative proposal to Parliament, as the Romania Defense Ministry concludes replacement negotiations with US.
• Borrell: EU to train 15,000 more Ukrainian military by end of year. EU defense ministers have agreed to expand the EUMAM mission, which has already trained 60,000 Ukrainian troops, calling it the “most successful training mission” ever organized by the EU.
• The Telegraph: Starmer’s Ukraine support undermined by limitations on deep strikes in Russia. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s efforts to support Ukraine are being hampered by restrictions on the use of long-range missiles within Russian territory, The Telegraph reports.
• Some long-ago promised Patriot systems not yet delivered to Ukraine, Foreign Minister says. With the new school year approaching, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba emphasized the urgent need to protect Ukrainian cities and children from Russian missile attacks.

Humanitarian and social impact

• Russia hits Kharkiv, injures 40, kills 5, including child – UPDATED. Russian forces launched a series of guided aerial bomb attacks on Kharkiv on August 30, resulting in at least three deaths and multiple injuries.
• Russia injures 9 in attack on Sumy. Ukraine’s Air defense forces shot down 12 of the 18 drones during the night attack. Russia also attacked Ukraine with an Iskander missile overnight.

Political and legal developments

• Bloomberg: Putin assured of non-arrest in Mongolia despite ICC warrant. Russian President Putin received assurances from Mongolia that he won’t be arrested for war crimes during a planned visit, despite an ICC warrant, per Bloomberg.
• Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry calls on Mongolia to arrest Putin during his visit under ICC warrant. As Vladimir Putin prepares for his first visit to an ICC member state since the issuance of his arrest warrant, Ukraine urges Mongolia to take action.

Russian losses

As of 30 AUG 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 613590 (+1200)
• Tanks: 8574 (+3)
• APV: 16722 (+23)
• Artillery systems: 17572 (+23)
• MLRS: 1175 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 940
• Aircraft: 368
• Helicopters: 328
• UAV: 14453 (+84)
• Cruise missiles : 2556
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 23763 (+57)

Read our earlier daily review here.