Exclusive

Ukraine’s artillery deficit twice as severe as EU’s 1mn round pledge falls through. Ukrainian soldiers now fire twice as less shells than one year ago, while the EU promises to deliver the promised 1 million of shells only by the end of 2024

Ukraine claims milestone in top UN Court, but Russia left unpunished. After nearly 7 years, the International Court of Justice issued a nuanced ruling on Ukraine’s case over Russian violations in occupied Crimea and Donbas – one with symbolic meaning but limited tangible impact for now.

Military

Zelenskyy announces arrival of two advanced air defense systems in Ukraine. The Ukrainian President did not specify the type of systems but said they can ” shoot down everything.”

Intel chief: Ukraine used six Magura V5 surface drones to sink Russia’s Ivanovets missile corvette. Ukraine used six Magura V5 maritime suicide drones to sink the Russian Navy’s Ivanovets missile corvette, per Ukraine’s intelligence chief. Each of these drones is capable of carrying 320 kg of explosives.

WP: Ukraine informs White House about decision to fire Zaluzhnyi. While no formal dismissal announcement came amid persistent rumors, The Washington Post, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that the Ukrainian government has informed the White House that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has decided to remove Zaluzhnyi from his post.

As of 02 Feb 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 387060 (+830)
    • Tanks: 6331 (+9)
    • APV: 11792 (+19)
    • Artillery systems: 9274 (+46)
    • MLRS: 978 (+2)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 663
    • Aircraft: 332
    • Helicopters: 324
    • UAV: 7146 (+5)
    • Cruise missiles : 1847
    • Warships/boats: 24 (+1)
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 12316 (+49)

Intelligence and technology

UK intel: Over 1,000 Russian military bribery cases point to deep corruption problems. An investigation by an independent Russian paper reveals endemic corruption in the Russian military via bribes for services ranging from leave to avoiding frontline deployment, per UK intelligence.

International

Politico: Czechia advocates buying artillery shells for Ukraine from outside EU. The Czech Republic leads a push for the EU to procure artillery shells from outside the bloc to meet its commitments to Ukraine.

Borrelll insists EU intends to send 1,000,000 shell pledge to Ukraine even if initial March timeline not met. Though the EU will fall short of the March 2024 goal of providing 1 million artillery rounds to Ukraine, Borrelll states that an additional 630,000 shells are to be delivered by the end of 2024 to fulfill the pledge.

Canada, Ukraine launch int’l coalition to return children deported by Russia. The coalition aims to collaborate with numerous countries worldwide, leveraging their collective influence to exert pressure on Moscow to secure the return of Ukrainian children.

Lithuania delivers ammunition, detonation systems to Ukraine. “Our assistance to Ukraine is active and consistent because it is an investment in our own security,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian troops bomb downtown Kherson, injuring three civilians (photos). On 2 February, Russian forces injured at least six civilians in Kherson Oblast and the city of Kherson, targeting residential areas with attacks from aircraft, artillery, and drones.

Russian drone assault cuts power for thousands, traps 100+ miners underground as Ukraine downs 11/24 UAVs. A Russian suicide drone attack hit civilian infrastructure, causing power cuts in central Ukraine and trapping 100+ miners underground. Other attacks killed at least two civilians in the south.

Ukrainian NGO returns home four more children from Russian-occupied south. “Today, our Save Ukraine team brought back four more children from the occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. These children range in age from 0 to 16 years old” – NGO

Political and legal developments

US imposes sanctions on key procurement network supporting Iran’s missile and UAV programs. The US sanctions target four entities based in Iran and Hong Kong, designated for facilitating supplies to sanctioned Iranian military organizations.

Media: Pro-Russian Bundestag aide unmasked as FSB asset. A German MP’s aide sought over 90,000 euros from his FSB handler to finance legal efforts to limit German arms transfers to Ukraine, a journalistic investigation shows.

Read our earlier daily review here.