Exclusive

David topples Goliath: Ukraine’s DIY naval drones outfox Russia’s Black sea fleet. Lacking warships, Ukraine came up with a “drone swarm” solution. They can swim, fly, shoot, and batter. The result? Russian Black Sea Fleet warships have fled to Novorossiysk – but are not safe even there.

Military

ISW: Russia’s ability to rotate troops will likely sustain offensive tempo in Ukraine. The concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force of over 460,000 in Ukraine allows Russia to conduct operational rotation of its troops in Ukraine, ISW said. This will likely sustain Russia’s offensive tempo in Ukraine.

Russian losses.As of 12 Jan 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 368460 (+840)
    • Tanks: 6060 (+10)
    • APV: 11254 (+16)
    • Artillery systems: 8710 (+11)
    • MLRS: 957
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 642 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 329
    • Helicopters: 324
    • UAV: 6836 (+1)
    • Cruise missiles: 1806
    • Warships/boats: 23
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 11612 (+16)

Intelligence and technology

Russia hits 2 million large-caliber munitions yearly; 500k shortfall covered by North Korea. First Belarus, then Iran, and now mainly North Korea have covered Russia’s ammunition shortfalls, according to Ukrainian intelligence

British Intel: Russia unable to resist Ukrainian FPV drones on Dnipro’s eastern bank in Kherson Oblast. Russia lacks the electronic warfare capabilities in eastern Kherson to counter the remote-controlled Ukrainian drones, which, British intel said, citing a Russian blogger’s battlefield report, destroyed up to 90% of Russian military equipment in the area.

International

Ukrainians among captives of Somali militants after UN helicopter crash. Four Ukrainian citizens and five other foreigners were taken hostage by Somali militants who seized a crashed UN helicopter in Somalia, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spox said.

UK boosts military aid to Ukraine with £2.5 billion package. The military aid package will include advanced weapons, drones, and training for Ukrainian soldiers.

Zelenskyy and Sunak sign landmark security pact between UK and Ukraine. The UK has reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as it signed a ten-year security cooperation agreement with Kyiv.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian forces kill 2 people in shelling of Kherson. The Russian occupying forces shelled the Kherson city with artillery on 12 January, killing two citizens, Kherson Oblast head Oleksandr Produkin said.

Russia’s attack kills one, injures three in Kherson Oblast, southern Ukraine. Since the liberation of the western bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast by Ukrainian forces in November 2022, Russian troops have been firing at the liberated territories from the eastern bank of the river, regularly resulting in civilian deaths and injuries.

Political and legal developments

Bloomberg: Russia braces for legal battle over its frozen assets. Russia is ready to challenge any attempts to confiscate its central bank reserves as compensation for Ukraine.

Ukraine designates Subway int’l sponsor of war for chain’s continued operations in Russia. America’s Subway fast food chain is supporting Russia’s economy and capacity to wage war by keeping over 500 locations open in Russia, Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency said.

Zelenskyy: Air control crucial for Ukraine’s ground offensive. According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine “does not make wide steps forward” because Russian forces “control the sky.” “If we unblock the sky, we will go forward, if not – we will stand where we stand,” he said.

New developments

White House: US aid to Ukraine stopped while Russian strikes only intensify. The United States has suspended aid to Ukraine pending Congressional approval of new funding, US National Security Adviser John Kirby said on 11 January at a briefing in the White House.

Read our earlier daily review here.