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Ukraine built a belt of fortress cities to stop Russia. Now the southernmost link is about to break. Ten Ukrainian brigades may have to abandon Pokrovsk—the Donbas fortress they’ve defended for more than a year.

Military

Russia masses 100,000 troops to crush Ukraine’s defenders in Donetsk’s crucial battle. While Kostiantynivka holds, Moscow’s brutal summer offensive surges forward, threatening to sever Ukraine’s eastern front.

Belarusian Mi-24 helicopter shoots down Russian drone flying to Ukraine. At least three Russian drones were operating in Belarusian airspace when local air defense forces destroyed one “Gerbera” strike drone during what became a 600-projectile assault on Ukrainian cities, intelligence sources confirm.

Ukraine destroys thermobaric weapons facility that fed drone strikes on its cities, satellite images confirm. A 7 July strike lit up the Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant, a core supplier of Shahed drone explosives.

For first time, Estonian troops test US-supplied HIMARS in drills denounced by Russia as “provocation”. Estonian rocket artillery fired precision strikes from Saaremaa island in a bold first exercise, triggering threats from Moscow.

Intelligence and technology

US to sell nearly $10 billion in weapons to NATO allies supplying Ukraine. From Patriots to artillery, American equipment will flow through Europe to the Ukrainian front lines.

Trump announces 17 Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine to shield cities from Russian air terror. First launchers could arrive within days.

Ukraine’s next weapon could be US-made JASSM — and it might arrive just in time. As Russia masses troops for a brutal push eastward, Trump looks to arm Ukraine with one of the most powerful missiles in the American arsenal.

Ukraine’s drone face Rubikon, Russia’s deadly new unit targeting drone operators. Ukraine races to develop drones that can fly and fight themselves, moving operators far from frontline danger.

ISW: Russia fortifies select airbases after Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb. Russia has begun emergency construction of protective bunkers at key military airbases after Ukraine’s 1 June drone operation destroyed 41 strategic aircraft worth over $7 billion, satellite imagery reveals.

German defense giant Rheinmetall secures €70 billion order for 7,000 armored vehicles to equip Bundeswehr amid Russia’s war. CEO Papperger reveals massive industrial surge fueled by Russia’s war, promising tens of billions in revenue and thousands of new jobs.

“We definitely can’t give any more” – Pistorius on sending Patriots to Ukraine. Germany depleted half its Patriot air defense arsenal through transfers to Ukraine and Poland. Germany Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to seek US approval for purchasing replacement systems specifically for Kyiv.

Trump to announce “aggressive” Ukraine weapons plan, reportedly including Patriots. President Donald Trump to announce a new weapons package for Ukraine that could include long-range missiles capable of reaching Moscow, sources tell Axios, marking a dramatic escalation after Vladimir Putin told Trump he planned a 60-day offensive to capture more Ukrainian territory.

International

Europe launches new €500 million flagship fund for Ukraine after Russian attacks. Reconstruction won’t wait for the war to end.

Ukrainian defense chiefs warn Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy: Russia gearing up for war not just with Kyiv. Ukraine delivers a stark warning to the US general under fire.

Trump and NATO unleash billions in weapons for Ukraine as Putin faces 50-day ultimatum. Air defense batteries and missile systems are already on the move as the West accelerates pressure on Moscow.

Trump says US to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if war doesn’t end in 50 days. The White House sharpens its economic arsenal to force Russia to the peace table.

Zelenskyy, Kellogg meet in Kyiv to shape next phase of US–Ukraine ties after Russia launched 5,000 drones in June. As Ukraine endures one of its deadliest bombardment waves, new US support is pledged, with Patriots, drones, and sanctions to follow.

Frontline report: NATO warns commercial aviation crash could trigger military response to Russian jamming. Alliance officials have indicated that casualties from GPS interference would be treated “not as an accident but as a deliberate escalation,” potentially leading to direct strikes on Kaliningrad’s electronic warfare installations or a surge in advanced weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Putin tells Trump Russia will escalate Ukraine offensive within 60 days as US president calls Kremlin leader disappointing. Vladimir Putin informed Donald Trump during their 3 July phone call that Russia intends to continue offensive operations until securing full administrative borders of occupied Ukrainian oblasts.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian attacks kill 6 people, injure 30 people over past day. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 61 of 136 Russian drones during a nighttime barrage that nevertheless killed four civilians and injured 14 others across three oblasts.

Political and legal developments

Zelenskyy offers Svyrydenko to become Prime Minister amid major executive overhaul. Ukraine’s government faces a major reshuffle as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko to head the government, while current Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal may move to lead the Defense Ministry.

Read our earlier daily review here.