Exclusives

How Ukraine can win, p.5: Russia’s $8 billion recruitment machine could be its weakest link. The vibes at the massacre are good—but it’s costing Russia a fortune.

My bomb shelter is a bathroom floor. By 6 AM, I know who made it through another night.

A Russian drone found the toughest armor on the battlefield—and lost. Russian observers celebrated a drone strike on a Ukrainian Leopard 2A6 near Pysarivka. They filmed the moment it hit the tank’s frontal turret—the exact spot where its armor is thickest.

Military

Ukraine hits backbone of Russian ammo supply chain—defense-linked plant rocked by explosions near Moscow. Residents of Krasnozavodsk reported multiple loud blasts after Ukrainian drones reportedly reached the site.

Russian airports crippled by mysterious airspace threat—171 flights canceled in Moscow alone. Authorities cite safety concerns as Moscow, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Pskov, Tambov, and St. Petersburg airports stop servicing flights.

SBU arrests 22-year-old suspected Russian agent who planted car bomb in Odesa, injuring local man. The man was detained while trying to escape after triggering the blast under a parked vehicle on 5 July.

“Trying to exploit any opening”: Ukrainian officer warns of Russian tactics near Lyman in northern Donetsk. Moscow seeks to retake the city it briefly held in 2022, but Ukrainian forces are holding strong.

ISW: Russia may trade deep breakthrough attempts for slow envelopment around fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast. Recent gains northeast of Pokrovsk signal a tactical priority shift, aiming at a tactical restraint designed to force Ukrainian withdrawals, says ISW.

No hits, no harm: Russia’s 5 July “hypersonic” Kinzhal strike on Ukraine bomber base fails. Starokostiantyniv base remains a key target for Russia’s missile and drone assaults.

Intelligence and technology

Europe just ran its first war game with drones and robots—Ukraine helped design it. At a test site near Rome, EU armies tested drone-to-robot resupply missions, using frontline scenarios developed with Ukrainian experts.

International

Russia may invade Estonia in “five or seven years,” NATO chief Rutte says. “If we don’t [invest in defense], we’ll have to learn Russian,” he said.

Frontline report: Russia says NATO jets in Estonia are nuclear. They’re not—but the danger’s real. The F-35s carry no nuclear weapons, but Moscow’s false claims may be building justification for retaliation.

Humanitarian and social impact

Drone flames in Kharkiv, missile blasts in Chuhuiv, shell in Kherson—Russia kills 13, injures 67. Explosive strikes hit cities and villages alike, with 3 children wounded in Kharkiv alone.

What we know about Moscow’s overnight air assault: Russian drone strikes injure elderly and toddler, hit on homes, preschool, and enlistment center (updated). The Russian drones injured at least nine civilians, including a woman, 87, pulled from rubble, a 90-year-old in Zaporizhzhia, and a 2-year-old in Kharkiv, targeting civilian areas and the third draft office in a week.

Political and legal developments

Politico: Ukraine spent € 1 billion on trenches. Russia is still advancing. Officials say the defenses are built. Soldiers say they’re digging by hand under fire — and it’s not enough.

“It’s WWI all over again,” warns former UK chemical commander as Russia escalates gas attacks in Ukraine. Ukraine’s frontlines are beginning to resemble Ypres, says Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former head of the UK’s chemical weapons unit, as Russia intensifies gas attacks.

Forbes: Trump can’t stop the war with words — but he can with Russian money. Seizing sovereign Russian assets would turn the tables without firing a shot.

Read our earlier review here.