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Trump promised peace in 24 hours. 100 days later, Ukraine bleeds alone.. Kyiv now faces two adversaries: Russian missiles and American ultimatums.

Military

Victory Day ceasefire: Ukrainian forces unveil Russia’s tactical intent. Past Russian “truces” resulted in documented 25% artillery surges the very next day, revealing how ceremonial peace gestures serve as operational covers for battlefield preparation—a pattern Ukraine now anticipates in Moscow’s upcoming Victory Day ceasefire.

ISW: Putin weaponizes Victory Day ceasefire to strengthen Russia’s war effort. Putin’s announced VE Day ceasefire aims to bolster Russia’s battlefield posture, reject US-Ukrainian peace initiatives, and mask true intentions.

Zelenskyy warns: Russia preparing “something” alarming in Belarus for 2025. Zelenskyy warns that Russia’s military buildup in Belarus disguised as “Zapad-2025” exercises follows the same pattern used before previous invasions, potentially threatening Ukraine, Poland, or Lithuania this summer.

Russia’s Novorossiysk oil facility blaze follows reports of explosions. It remains unclear whether the fire resulted from a Ukrainian air attack, Ukrainian sabotage, or an accident.

Zelenskyy calls Putin’s 9 May truce proposal a deceptive maneuver. The Ukrainian President urged an immediate, unconditional 30-day truce instead of waiting for May, emphasizing that preserving human life is more important than ceremonial events like military parades.

Victory at any cost: Moscow will drain its people to feed front, expert says. As Russia ramps up its propaganda machine ahead of 9 May celebrations, military expert Serhii Hrabskyi warns that the Kremlin will go to extreme lengths to sustain its war effort — even at the expense of its own people.

Putin’s aide warns NATO’s “war games” near Kaliningrad could trigger response while Russia stages its largest military buildup since invasion of Ukraine. While Patrushev alleges NATO plots against Russian territory, Belarus quietly prepares to host an exercise mirroring the exact scale and pattern of Russia’s pre-Ukraine invasion deployments.

As of 29 APR 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 950860 (+1060)
• Tanks: 10728 (+5)
• APV: 22352 (+14)
• Artillery systems: 27080 (+42)
• MLRS: 1373
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1146
• Aircraft: 370
• Helicopters: 335
• UAV: 34177 (+94)
• Cruise missiles: 3196
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 46432 (+140)

Intelligence and Technology

Russia’s cloaks of invisibility fail to fool Ukrainian drones on front lines. Ukrainian drone operators reveal how Russian troops using new anti-thermal “invisibility cloaks” on the Novopavlivka front become easier targets due to overconfidence.

Vepr-12 shotguns, Dragunov sniper rifles, RPG-7s grenade launchers: Russia trains North Korean forces to use advanced weapons. North Korea sacrifices soldiers in exchange for critical battlefield innovation with Russian modern weapons and drone warfare expertise.

SBU detains defence officials for delivering 120,000 defective mortar shells. Four individuals, including defence plant management and military quality control officials, have been detained for supplying 120,000 defective mortar shells to Ukrainian forces.

Too fast for machine guns: Russia quietly rolls out new jet kamikaze drone that outruns ground fire in Ukraine. Russia’s war on Ukraine may have entered a new phase with the emergence of the mysterious “Banderol” drone— a jet-powered loitering munition that Ukrainian experts say is faster, harder to intercept, and unlike anything Russia has used before.

Latvia sends new batch of 1,500 combat drones to Ukraine. The shipment is part of a 12,000-unit delivery commitment by Latvian manufacturers under the international drone coalition.

Frontline report: Sweden’s super radar just gave Ukraine’s F-16s eyes and longer reach. Sweden may have delivered ASC 890 radar planes to Ukraine, enhancing its F-16s with long-range surveillance and strike capabilities previously out of their grasp.

International

Kellogg: Putin’s proposal for a “three-day ceasefire is absurd”. US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg has called Putin’s three-day ceasefire proposal “absurd” as the Trump administration pushes for a more comprehensive 30-day truce in Ukraine.

Ex-MI6 spy chief: Putin’s losing and lying, but the West is falling for it. Russia is losing so badly it could take 80 years to win in Ukraine.

US Vice President says prolonged Ukraine war could lead to “demographic collapse and nuclear strike”. US Vice President JD Vance said peace negotiations with Russia and Ukraine are progressing but admitted the Trump administration cannot guarantee success.

Macron announces “increased pressure on Russia” in “the next eight to ten days”. The French President says he “remains cautious” about the ceasefire because “part of the equation depends on Moscow.”

Ukraine to start consultations with Hungary to unblock EU accession talks – Stefanishyna. Regular consultations between Kyiv and Budapest will begin 12 May to address Hungary’s demands regarding national minorities in Ukraine.

Kos: EU seeks to convince Hungary to lift veto on Ukraine’s EU accession talks. The EU enlargement commissioner noted that Ukraine had fulfilled the required conditions. Budapest demands the restoration of legislation granting de facto privileges to the Hungarian minority.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russia targets Ukraine with 100 drones, killing two, injuring five civilians. At least 16 drones may have penetrated the air defenses.

Language as smokescreen: 84% of Ukrainians reject Russia’s oppression myth. New survey reveals the stark contradiction between Russia’s language-based justification for war and Ukrainian reality, as overwhelming majority reject claims of Russian-speaker discrimination.

Political and Legal Developments

US says two Ukrainians have been detained for illegal voting in 2024 elections. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced the arrest of two Ukrainians in what appears to be an early enforcement action by the new Trump administration against non-citizen voting.

Russia behind multiple cyberattacks on French institutions that have escalated since 2021, says Paris. France has officially accused Russia’s military intelligence of conducting a series of cyberattacks against French institutions, including Macron’s 2017 presidential campaign.

European Court prohibits Malta from issuing “golden passports”. The EU’s Court of Justice has banned Malta’s program of selling citizenship to wealthy investors, calling it illegal commercialization of EU membership.

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