Russia’s claims of success in Ukraine mask a far grimmer military reality: minimal territorial gains exchanged for unprecedented casualties and losses, Riley McCabe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues in an opinion piece in The Washington Post.
The author notes that Moscow shows little interest in serious diplomacy and continues to demand maximalist terms while launching new attacks. The op-ed emphasizes that despite its narrative of strength, Russia’s hand is far weaker than assumed by many in the West.
Russia’s advances yield limited territorial gains
In contrast, McCabe writes that Russia has been using brute force to advance since early 2024, but with little to show for it. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies cited in the article shows that Moscow has seized less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024—an area smaller than Delaware. Russian forces have managed daily advances averaging only about 50 meters near Kupiansk and roughly 135 meters in parts of Donetsk Oblast, even in their most active sectors.
Ukraine’s defenses, McCabe writes, give it the edge. Russian forces run into minefields, trench systems, and artillery zones, with drones causing most combat deaths. This setup has turned the conflict into a bloody deadlock.
Scale of Russian casualties is historical
According to McCabe, these minor gains have come at an extraordinary cost. Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed the total number of Soviet and Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. By summer 2025, Russia is projected to surpass 1 million total military casualties. The op-ed notes that Russian equipment losses since January 2024 include roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles, and 1,900 tanks.
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McCabe includes comparisons showing that Russia’s death toll in Ukraine now exceeds losses in every Soviet and Russian war since World War II. The opinion piece includes visual breakdowns of fatalities from conflicts in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria, Georgia, and others—none of which approach current Ukrainian war figures.
Putin bets on US withdrawal, not battlefield success
The opinion piece argues that Russia’s best hope lies in Western political fatigue. McCabe writes,
“Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot.”
The author warns that a loss of US support could deprive Ukraine of air defenses, munitions, and strike capabilities, and shatter morale.
Trump again blames both Ukraine and Russia for failing to reach a peace deal