- Russia launches dozens of armored vehicles toward Pokrovsk in renewed mechanized assaults
- Ukrainian drones, artillery, and mines destroyed at least 20 vehicles from a single 35-vehicle Russian assault column
- Russia spent nearly a year hoarding tanks for this offensive—now losing them faster than its factories can replace
- With only 2,500 Soviet-era tanks remaining in storage, Russia faces a strategic reckoning
After months of infantry-led assaults, Russia launched at least two major armored assaults around the fortress city of Pokrovsk this week—both ending in catastrophic losses for Russian tank columns.
The shift back to mechanized warfare marks a dangerous escalation. After months relying on infantry assaults, Russian forces are now committing precious armor reserves in repeated attempts to widen their salient—even as Ukrainian drones, mines, and artillery destroy tanks faster than Moscow's factories can replace them.
One urgent objective: widen the base of the 40-square-km salient Russian troops carved into Ukrainian lines northeast of Pokrovsk in August. That breakthrough puts Russian forces within reach of Dobropillia, a village sitting astride a main supply line feeding into Pokrovsk from the north.
Capture Dobropillia, and Russia could starve Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk, forcing a retreat. Capture Pokrovsk itself, and Russian forces would have a clear shot at the twin fortress cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk—potentially unhinging Ukraine's entire fortress line in Donetsk Oblast.
The fighting in the Dobropillia pocket is growing more chaotic as more Russian armor presses from multiple directions.
Monday's disaster: 18 vehicles destroyed approaching Myrnohrad
The two biggest mechanized assaults near Pokrovsk in recent days both ended in disaster for Russia.
On Monday, the Russian 5th Motor Rifle Brigade rolled 18 armored vehicles—a porcupine tank and 17 infantry fighting vehicles—toward Myrnohrad, just east of Pokrovsk.
Drones and artillery from the Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade destroyed the tank and 12 IFVs just east of Myrnohrad, killing around 100 Russian soldiers. "The remnants of the enemy units retreated, suffering significant losses."
Thursday's bloodbath: 35 tanks and APCs shredded at Shakhove
Four days earlier, a Thursday afternoon assault on the village of Shakhove—buttressing Ukrainian defenses along the eastern corner of the chaotic salient just north of Pokrovsk—ended in similar bloody fashion.
Scores of motorcycle troops sped along Kuibyshevo Road threading from contested Volodymyrivka toward adjacent Shakhove, defended by Ukraine's 225th Assault Regiment. 35 Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers followed right behind.
Some Russian vehicles struck mines. Drones and artillery targeted the survivors. "Thanks to well-planned engineering measures for mine-laying and coordinated actions of the defense forces—primarily artillery crews and unmanned systems—the enemy's plans were thwarted," the 1st Azov Corps reported.
Russia reportedly lost around 20 vehicles, not counting motorcycles.
Putin’s prized T-90Ms go up in smoke after disastrous assault near Pokrovsk
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Why Shakhove matters for Russia's Dobropillia salient
Thursday's attack targeted Shakhove for good reason. The village sits on the southeastern corner of the Dobropillia salient. Ukrainian troops in Shakhove can direct drones and artillery at Russian reinforcement and supply columns trying to sneak into the salient.
Similarly, Shakhove serves as a likely base for any Ukrainian attempt to counterattack across the salient.
"The situation in the Dobropillia breakthrough zone remains extremely precarious and will remain so until Shakhove is captured, thereby expanding the front and establishing supply lines," Russian blogger Military Information explained.
"Therefore, we can soon expect more similar attacks involving armored vehicles," the blogger added.
Russia's strategic gamble: trading irreplaceable tanks for uncertain gains
Significant risk exists for Russia. A big enough vehicular attack, launched at the right time—perhaps under cover of winter fog—could eventually eject Ukrainian troops from Shakhove.
But each failed attempt costs Russia vehicles it spent months stockpiling.
Tanks and other armored fighting vehicles "are becoming less and less common on the modern battlefield with each passing month," Military Informant noted.
Russia has lost 17,000 armored vehicles in 44 months of hard fighting in Ukraine. And it's now tapping the last big reserves of old Cold War-vintage tanks.
Russia's tank production crisis: building 250, losing thousands
Once those last 2,500 tanks are gone, Russians will have to build new ones. But despite ambitious plans for a future force of 2,600 new T-90M/M2 and T-72B3M tanks, actual Russian tank production recently collapsed for want of skilled labor, precision welding, and ready-to-upgrade hulls.
Some estimates suggest Russia's Uralvagonzavod factory may produce 250 to 300 tanks annually. But Sergio Miller, a former British Army intelligence officer, believes Russia is struggling to complete even 100 T-90Ms a year. The country's two tank factories may have produced just 10 new T-90M tanks this year, with many "new" tanks actually being upgraded versions of older T-90As rather than built from scratch.
The losses matter because Russia can't replace what it's losing. Whether Russia produces 10 tanks or 300 annually, the math doesn't work: the country loses around 10 tanks per day, or roughly 300 per month.
