The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 21 September that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during their incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in August 2024, despite Russian authorities’ prior awareness of the possibility of such an attack.

Ukraine’s forces started its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast on 6 August.  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that these operations were intended to create a buffer zone to impede Russian military actions against Ukraine.

According to The Guardian, which cited Russian government and military documents seized by Ukrainian forces, Russian military units stationed in Kursk Oblast had been warning their command about a potential Ukrainian incursion since late 2023.

The Guardian reports that these documents, which they reviewed but could not independently verify, show that “local military commanders repeatedly ordered additional training exercises for Russian military personnel serving in Kursk Oblast, the construction of additional fortifications, and the preparation of decoy trenches and military equipment” in anticipation of a Ukrainian attack.

However, the ISW reports that Russian authorities appear to have failed to act on these warnings. The Guardian’s report indicates that as of June 2024, Russian units along the international border were understaffed and poorly trained.

One document reportedly stated that these units were “only staffed at between 60 and 70 percent of their intended end strength on average and were primarily staffed by poorly trained reservists.”

The ISW argues that this situation supports their assessment that “Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the incursion into Kursk Oblast despite Russian authorities’ reported awareness of the possibility of an incursion.” They explain that surprise, in military terms, means to “attack the enemy in a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared.”

The report suggests that while Russian forces may have been aware of potential entry points along the border, “Ukrainian forces were able to leverage ambiguity around their operational intent and capabilities to maintain operational surprise.” The ISW also mentions that Ukrainian forces reportedly used innovative techniques combining ground activity and unmanned systems, though they do not provide details to protect Ukrainian operational security.

The ISW concludes that Ukraine’s campaign in Kursk Oblast “demonstrates that surprise is still possible even on a partially transparent battlefield where an adversary can observe force concentrations but not reliably discern an enemy’s operational intent and capabilities.”

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