In September, the Russian army lost momentum at the front. Over the entire month, the occupiers managed to advance only 259 square kilometers into Ukrainian territory — the lowest figure since May, analysts at DeepState report.

Russia captured half as much territory as in August

“Last month, Russian troops occupied 44% less territory than in August. In a whole month, the Russians managed to seize only 0.04% of Ukraine’s total area. The overall figure now stands at 19.04%,” the analysts note.

Main directions of fighting

According to DeepState, the main territorial losses were in:

• Novopavlivka direction — 53% of all sq km (16% of assaults);
• Lyman — 19% sq km (10% of assaults);
• Kupiansk — 14% sq km (4% of assaults);
• Pokrovsk — 9% sq km (31% of assaults);
• Toretsk — 4% sq km (8% of assaults).

“Novopavlivka is the main problematic area. The number of advances there significantly exceeds the intensity of assaults, and recent personnel decisions do not give much hope for changes,” the experts emphasize.

This area is located near the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk oblasts. 

Pokrovsk and Kupiansk: defense holds, but threat remains

According to DeepState, the Kupiansk direction in Kharkiv Oblast became one of the most dangerous, and only timely decisions prevented it from turning into a tragedy.

“But it is too early to say that the threat has passed — the battle for the city continues,” analysts warn.

In September, the Russian Ministry of Defense publicly confirmed its plans to expand military operations deeper into Kharkiv Oblast following any potential capture of Kupiansk.

It also claimed the seizure “will also support Russian efforts to advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk (both south of Kupiansk in Donetsk Oblast) and seize Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast.”

That month, Russian forces attempted to infiltrate Kupiansk through underground pipes, specifically gas pipelines. This tactic was used near Sudzha in Kursk Oblast and in Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Defense remains effective in the Pokrovsk direction in Donetsk Oblast: it accounts for every tenth square kilometer of occupation, but a third of all assaults take place here.

Near Pokrovsk, Ukraine discovers chaos favors the bigger army

“The price of every meter here is significantly higher. The enemy has closely approached the city from the south, and fighting inside the city and in the tree lines are two entirely different levels of complexity,” the report states.

Russia has located a powerful force of 100,000 troops near Pokrovsk. However, the town is heavily defended by drones, artillery, infantry, and even a few Leopard 2A4 tanks.