In the first year of a new war, Europe would face refugees, collapsing infrastructure, and skyrocketing prices, Bloomberg reports.
The most intriguing question remains whether all of the European allies will be involved in a collective security system in this case, as NATO’s Article 5 has not been tested in any war.
Analysts warn that a full-scale war between Russia and NATO could lead to the collapse of many countries. In just the first year of fighting, global output would shrink by 1.3%, or nearly $1.5 trillion, a loss equivalent to what the world suffered after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia spy chief warns NATO: Poland and Baltic States to “suffer first” in event of war
The Baltic states would be hit hardest: their economies would shrink by 43%, similar to the economic collapse in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. Poland, Finland, Germany, and Sweden would be next in line for missile strikes and devastation.
The European Union as a whole would lose 1.2% of GDP. Rising military spending would only partially offset the blow from soaring energy prices and crashing markets. The UK would lose 0.2%, the US 0.7%, and China 0.9%.
Russia, on the other hand, would lose just 1%, since its economy is already isolated by sanctions, and the war creates an illusion of growth.
The Kremlin could trigger a new phase of the conflict using a staged provocation. One of the most vulnerable targets is the Moscow-Kaliningrad railway, which passes through Vilnius. Denmark has already warned that Russia could attack a neighboring country within six months, and within two years pose a direct threat to NATO.
The report states that without an immediate US response, the conflict could escalate and spread beyond the Baltic States, engulfing additional countries.