Ukrainian forces struck and damaged another ship supporting Russia’s war effort on the Black Sea on Thursday night.
Another ship strike isn’t remarkable. In the 43 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, the Ukrainians have sunk or damaged roughly a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s three dozen warships. Most notably, the cruiser Moskva, holed by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles way back in April 2022.
What’s notable about the Thursday strike on the Project MPSV07 rescue and salvage ship was how and where Ukrainian operators hit it. The 73-m salvage ship, operated by Russia’s auxiliary rescue agency, was patrolling just outside the port of Novorossiysk, in southern Russia, 400 km from the front line.
Rather than send a squadron of comparatively slow drone boats or expend a precious cruise missile that might cost $1 million or more, the Ukrainian military intelligence service, the HUR, flew a fixed-wing attack drone at very low altitude all the way to Novorossiysk, and struck the Project MPSV07’s bridge area, where many of the most delicate electronics are.
The hit on the Project MPSV07 had the effect of “destroying its electronic warfare systems and forcing it out of action,” the Ukrainian strategic communications service announced.
The raid came just two weeks after a Ukrainian drone team scored a hit on a Black Sea Fleet missile corvette in a similar way—by maneuvering an attack drone at wave-top height and striking the corvette’s topside electronics.
Blowing up topside radar masts and satellite receivers with a small drone might not sink a ship, but it can inflict a lot of difficult-to-repair damage—and at low cost and risk to the attacker. Even the priciest attack drones cost just $200,000; most are in the range of five figures.
It’s worth noting that the Project MPSV07 is an ice-hardened vessel, with a reinforced hull for sailing through icy northern waters. All that extra steel makes a Project MPSV07 a harder target than, say, a thinner-hulled missile corvette.
In that context, the attack on the vessel’s electronics makes even more sense. The Ukrainians hit the ship where it’s most vulnerable.
Rolling back the air defenses
The virtuosic raid didn’t come together overnight. Until recently, the waters around Russian-occupied Crimea were protected by one of the densest air-defense networks in the world: dozens of Russian radars, mobile guns, surface-to-air missile vehicles, and batteries, including long-range S-300 and S-400 SAM sites.
But relentless Ukrainian drone strikes have steadily dismantled those air defenses, effectively clearing the air over Crimea and lending the drone operators greater freedom.
Moreover, Ukraine’s Starlink satellite terminals, which most of its drones rely on for control and communication, work just fine over Crimea. They generally don’t work over Russia proper—likely a deliberate choice by Starlink founder Elon Musk.
Bayraktar is back—and it’s all over Crimea
That the airspace over and around Crimea is becoming more favorable to Ukraine is evident—and not only in the Thursday hit on that Russian salvage ship. Ukraine’s Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2 drones are now very active over Crimea, flinging tiny precision missiles at Russian boats and other equipment.
Ukraine just brought back its Bayraktar TB-2 drones—and they’re breaking through Russia’s air defenses
Ukraine’s 60 or so TB-2 led Ukraine’s initial drone counterattack in the first weeks of Russia’s wider invasion in early 2022. However, the big, expensive TB-2—it weighs nearly 700 kg and costs millions of dollars—eventually lost relevance.
TB-2s were big, fat, and hard to replace. Smaller, better, and cheaper drones—many of them made in Ukraine—soon displaced the surviving TB-2s.
That some TB-2s are back in action over Crimea speaks to the insatiable demand for drones as Russia’s wider war grinds into its 43rd month. But it also points to yawning gaps in Russia’s air defenses.
The TB-2s were vulnerable three years ago. They’re even more vulnerable now, but only when the Russians can deploy their best air defenses.
It’s clear that, over southern waters, the Russians can’t deploy their best air defenses. At least, not without them swiftly coming under attack by the very drones they’re supposed to defeat.
