- The main fighting in the east is raging around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka
- But the Russians are making their fastest gains south of Pokrovsk
- Russia’s biggest tank division is redeploying for a renewed push in south Donetsk toward Pokrovske
- The Ukrainians are preparing fortifications in case the Russians march past Pokrovske toward Zaporizhzhia city
All eyes are on the battles raging around the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. But on a less populated sector of the front line just a few miles south of Pokrovsk, the Russians are steadily advancing.
If the Ukrainians can’t halt the advance, the city of Zaporizhzhia and its 700,000 inhabitants could eventually come under siege.
Why Pokrovsk draws Russian forces while Zaporizhzhia remains exposed
Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, 45 km to the east, are the twin locuses of the fighting as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds through its 43rd month. Capturing one or both cities would give the Russians a clear shot at the main urban conglomeration in western Donetsk: the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian command understand the importance of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka to their respective strategies.
“This year, both cities managed to attract and concentrate significant Russian forces,” French analyst Clément Molin commented.
But the gathering Russians “provoked a major reaction from the Ukrainian command, which redeployed its offensive forces from Kursk and several brigades from other fronts,” Molin explained.
Russia’s strategic advantage in southern Donetsk
The concentration of troops from both sides around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka has left the line of contact in southern Donetsk comparatively thinly manned.
But here, as elsewhere along the 1,100-km front line, the Russians have a manpower advantage. And a major tank advantage, too—although the tanks haven’t yet played a major role in the fighting.
With more troops and equipment, the Russians have been able to slowly but steadily push back the Ukrainians along the 75-km stretch of the front between Pokrovsk and the similarly named Pokrovske.
And the Russians’ advance may accelerate as they shift a key unit: the elite 90th Tank Division with its hundreds of T-90M tanks.
Russia’s 75-kilometer advance toward key defensive positions
Since capturing the town of Kurakhove in January, the Russians have marched 75 km west in south Donetsk—and are now just 15 kilometers from one of the main natural defenses in the area—the Vovcha River—and just 35 km from Pokrovske.
“The situation in the area is not catastrophic because no big city is threatened,” Molin noted.
After all, “there is no city at all” in the area—just forests and fields and small villages. Most of what the Russians have captured in south Donetsk this year is countryside.
Russian territorial gains in southern Donetsk:
- 75 km westward advance since January 2025
- 15 km from Vovcha River natural defense line
- 35 km from strategic town of Pokrovske
- Mostly rural territory captured, no major cities yet threatened
Ukraine prepares new fortifications as Russian tank elite approaches
But greater risk looms for the Ukrainians. The Russians “are slowly taking the highly fortified southern front,” Molin warned. Anticipating further Russian advances, Ukraine has begun digging major earthworks west of Pokrovske.
It’s possible, in the coming months, “a new axis will materialize,” according to Molin—one that could bring the Russians close enough to threaten Zaporizhzhia city.
90th Tank Division: Russia’s largest armored force redeploys south
The recent redeployment of the 90th Tank Division could prove pivotal. The 25,000-person division—the biggest in the Russian army—had been fighting along the northern part of the southern Donetsk front while lighter units fought further south.
When those lighter units got bogged down in Ukrainian defenses on the east side of the Vovcha River, the Russian command moved the 90th Tank Division south to add mass to the main Russian effort in south Donetsk.
90th Tank Division specifications:
- 25,000 personnel – Russia’s largest division
- Hundreds of modern T-90M tanks
- Recently redeployed from northern to southern sector
- Elite status within Russian armored forces
Ukrainian defenders rotate as Russia’s best tanks arrive
The Ukrainian army’s battle-hardened, but exhausted, 72nd Mechanized Brigade had been complicating the Russian division’s march—but the Ukrainian unit recently rotated off the front line, leaving less experienced brigades to face off against the 90th Tank Division.
Molin, for one, wrote that he fully expects the Russians to push to Pokrovske. If and when they advance past that town, we’ll find out how effective the new fortifications west of Pokrovske are.
The potential threat to Zaporizhzhia represents more than just another front line development. As one of Ukraine’s major industrial centers, the city’s capture would significantly disrupt Ukrainian logistics networks and potentially split the country’s defensive capabilities between north and south.
