In March, Russia captured just 130 square kilometers (50 square miles) of Ukrainian territory—an area roughly equal to the size of Manhattan in New York City—marking their slowest advance since June 2024, according to data from DeepState, an OSINT project with ties to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

This slowdown contradicts Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent assertion that Russian forces are “gaining momentum” on all fronts. The March figures represent a significant deceleration compared to Russia’s peak advances last November, when they seized 725 square kilometers (280 square miles) – roughly the size of Luxembourg.

Weekly progress in March

• Week 1: 14 square kilometers
• Week 2: 22 square kilometers
• Week 3: 47 square kilometers
• Week 4: 45 square kilometers

Declining momentum

Russia’s territorial gains have been steadily decreasing since December:

• November 2023: 725 square kilometers
• December 2023: 401 square kilometers
• January 2024: 321 square kilometers
• February 2024: 189 square kilometers
• March 2024: 130 square kilometers

Key factors slowing Russia’s progress

OSINT analyst Kirill Mikhailov told the Russian exiled media outlet Agentstvo that the slowdown in Russia’s advances is due to the ongoing depletion of its armored vehicle fleet and improvements in Ukrainian drone tactics and organizational strategies.

Military expert Yan Matveev points to several key factors hampering Russian advances:

• Equipment shortages
• Personnel deficits
• Poor-quality reinforcements
• Logistical challenges with supply lines that are stretched and vulnerable to Ukrainian drones and air bombs
• More favorable Ukrainian defensive positions.

The Russian advance towards Pokrovsk represents the most significant shift in the Donetsk front line in months. However, as reported by the BBC, innovative Ukrainian tactics combining drone strikes with ground operations have inflicted significant losses on Russian troops and equipment, effectively slowing this offensive.

Kursk and Belgorod developments

While struggling to advance in Ukraine, Russia has reclaimed most of the territory lost in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian-controlled territory there shrunk from 407 square kilometers in early March to approximately 70 square kilometers by month’s end. Meanwhile, Ukraine opened a new front in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, creating a 13-square-kilometer combat zone.

Despite these developments, Putin claimed during a meeting with the crew of the nuclear submarine Arkhangelsk that Russian forces hold “strategic initiative” across the entire contact line and are “operating more and more effectively.”

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