The Russian Ministry of Defense has publicly confirmed its plans to expand military operations deeper into Kharkiv Oblast following any potential capture of Kupiansk.

In a social media statement posted on 23 September, the Russian MoD declared that its forces “are continuing their offensive operation aimed at seizing Kupiansk” and claimed to have “partially enveloped Ukrainian forces in the city.” However, ISW reports it has not observed geolocated evidence supporting the encirclement claim as of its latest assessment.

The Russian military outlined an ambitious multi-directional advance strategy contingent on securing Kupiansk. According to the MoD statement, Russian forces “intend to leverage the seizure of Kupiansk to attack further into eastern Kharkiv Oblast in several directions simultaneously, including toward Chuhuiv (west of Kupiansk) and Izium (southwest of Kupiansk), and toward Vovchansk (northwest of Kupiansk).”

The Russian defense ministry further detailed plans for its Western and Northern force groupings to “unite the Vovchansk and Kupiansk efforts, which would effectively establish a ‘buffer zone’ near the international border in northern Kharkiv Oblast.”

Beyond Kharkiv Oblast, Russian officials indicated that capturing Kupiansk would support broader territorial ambitions. The MoD claimed the seizure “will also support Russian efforts to advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk (both south of Kupiansk in Donetsk Oblast) and seize Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast.”

ISW reported that these public statements align with its previous analytical work. The institute assessed in February 2024 that Russian efforts to capture Kupiansk and the east bank of the Oskil River were designed “to set operational conditions for Russian forces to advance into northern Donetsk Oblast toward Ukraine’s fortress belt and/or eastern Kharkiv Oblast toward Kharkiv City.”

More recently, ISW assessed on 12 July 2025, that Russian forces “likely began an offensive operation aimed at connecting Russian operations near Vovchansk with those near Dvorichna (north of Kupiansk), possibly to facilitate ongoing Russian efforts to establish a buffer zone along the international border.”

According to ISW, “The Russian MoD’s statement confirms these prior assessments of the Russian military command’s operational intent.”

The 23 September announcement contradicts Russia’s stated territorial limitations for the war. ISW reports that the MoD’s statement “undermines repeated Russian claims that Russia’s main military objective and territorial demands in Ukraine are limited to Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.” Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials have previously claimed Russia “only” wants control over these four oblasts as a prerequisite for ending the war.