Russian occupation forces are likely preparing for a new offensive, expected between late March and early April. This may explain the current decline in combat intensity on the front, according to military analyst and retired Ukrainian Armed Forces major Oleksii Hetman, who spoke with the FREEDOM TV channel.

Hetman stated that Russia is planning a prolonged offensive operation that could last “from six to nine months, effectively covering all of 2025.”

“Such operation may be conducted despite reports of possible peace negotiations,” he emphasized.

He noted that Russian forces are currently regrouping and replenishing units that have suffered heavy losses while also stockpiling equipment.

“It would be overly optimistic to assume that Ukraine’s Defense Forces have weakened the enemy to the point where they can no longer fight. The number of Russian troops on the front line remains above half a million,” Hetman said.

However, he pointed out that since late last year, Russia has begun to suffer a loss in both manpower and equipment, meaning they are losing more than they can replace. Despite this, Russia still has enough resources to conduct large-scale offensives. Hetman believes this is the key reason for the current lull in Russian attacks.

Recently, Forbes reported that Russian forces are preparing to advance on Kupiansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast. Their success will depend on whether Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army—comprising three divisions and five brigades with tens of thousands of troops—can secure a foothold on the western bank of the Oskil River.

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