The Belarusian regime bets on trade with Russian-looted goods from occupied Ukrainian territories. Minsk, a key ally of Moscow, is focusing on “making business” with Russian collaborator Volodymyr Saldo, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence has reported.
This comes as the US is improving cooperation with Belarus, a country heavily dependent on Russia economically. Recently, US military personnel were present at the Russia-Belarus military exercises West 2025. In addition, Washington has reportedly lifted some sanctions on the Belarusian airline Belavia and plans to reopen its embassy in Minsk. However, improved relations between Belarus and the US do not guarantee Minsk’s full separation from Russian influence.
On 15 September, self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Volodymyr Saldo, head of the occupation administration of occupied Kherson Oblast.
Lukashenko expressed willingness to cooperate with the so-called “new region” of Russia.
Before the occupation, Kherson Oblast was Ukraine’s top agricultural region. It supplied large quantities of grain, vegetables, rice, and other crops, earning its reputation as “Ukraine’s pantry.”
Lukashenko’s words and the meeting itself provoked sharp criticism from the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which called it another display of disregard for Ukraine’s sovereignty from Minsk.
Before the occupation, Kherson oblast was Ukraine’s top agricultural region. It supplied large quantities of grain, vegetables, rice, and other crops, earning its reputation as “Ukraine’s pantry.”
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Minsk’s economic weakness
Isolation after the 2020 protests and participation in the war on Russia’s side have made Belarus a toxic partner for most markets. Minsk is trying to keep its industries busy through cooperation with Venezuela, Syria, North Korea, and now, temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories.
“These steps effectively legitimize Russian aggression and push Belarus further from a possible return to the global economy,” says Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence.
Economic statistics highlight the country’s vulnerability. In January–July, the foreign trade deficit reached $3.5 billion, which is almost 1.5 times higher than last year. Imports are growing faster than exports, and demand for Belarusian goods is falling even in Russia.
Risks of trading in occupied lands
Minsk proposes to develop agriculture and tourism on the occupied lands, but this business relies on Russian subsidies and has no prospects for sustainable growth. Moreover, it increases the risk of new sanctions and deepens dependence on Moscow.