Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Russia is approaching a critical period as the full impact of its war against Ukraine will be felt around 2025-2026.
At the Yalta European Strategy conference, Budanov outlined several key challenges facing Russia and potential developments in the ongoing war.
According to Budanov, Russia’s economic problems will peak in the summer of 2025. “The decline is ongoing, it’s already noticeable, but this isn’t the peak yet. They forecast that around summer 2025, the negative impact on the economy will become very noticeable for the country,” he stated.
The intelligence chief highlighted that Russia is attempting to maximize its gains on the battlefield before this economic downturn. “They’re trying to accelerate many processes now to enter this period as they would like,” Budanov explained.
As Budanov said, one of Russia’s most pressing issues is the supply of munitions from North Korea.
Budanov detailed the direct correlation between North Korean shipments and increased fighting, saying, “With the arrival of a North Korean ship delivering ammunition, after eight to nine days, combat operations intensify maximally for two to three weeks. This is a direct dependency.”
Budanov also discussed Russia’s domestic arms production, noting significant increases in certain areas.
The intelligence chief addressed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory, arguing that they have shattered the myth of Russia’s invincibility. “With the first explosions in Moscow, this myth was destroyed,” Budanov said.
Budanov emphasized the critical nature of the 2025-2026 period for Russia’s global standing.
“If Russia cannot defeat Ukraine by the beginning of 2026, it will cease to be perceived as a superpower,” he said. “All that Russia can count on is regional leadership.”
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