Russian missile and drone strikes on October 3 destroyed around 60% of Ukraine’s domestic natural gas production capacity, dealing a major blow to the country’s energy security just weeks before the heating season begins.

The strikes threaten to leave millions of Ukrainians without reliable heating as Russia intensifies its campaign to cripple essential infrastructure ahead of winter. Gas powers most of Ukraine’s district heating systems and much of its backup electricity, forcing Kyiv to divert scarce funds to costly imports while sustaining its defense.

According to Bloomberg, Ukraine informed its allies that a massive Russian barrage targeting the Kharkiv and Poltava regions wiped out more than half of its gas output. 

The loss will likely force Kyiv to spend about €1.9 billion ($2.2 billion) on emergency gas imports to get through the winter.

The latest wave of attacks marks one of the most damaging assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion. 

If strikes continue, Ukraine may need to import 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of March - nearly one-fifth of its annual consumption - according to officials cited in the report.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is deliberately targeting Ukraine’s gas fields and production facilities to deepen winter hardships. “They will do everything to prevent us from extracting our gas,” he told reporters in Kyiv on Monday. “The task is to have money to import gas so that people have gas.”

Ukrainian Energy Minister Svitlana Grynchuk said the final import volumes will depend on how quickly damaged facilities can be repaired and whether further airstrikes occur. 

Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi said he held “productive” talks with G7 and IMF partners on financial and technical support.

Russia escalates systematic energy warfare

Before the latest strikes, Ukraine’s gas infrastructure could meet domestic demand with an annual output of about 19 billion cubic meters. But Russia has escalated attacks on the energy sector in recent weeks, seeking to disrupt heating and electricity supplies through the winter.

These kinds of attacks triggered rolling blackouts across the country in 2023 and 2024, with outages lasting up to 12 hours daily in some cities. Ukraine avoided a full energy collapse last winter largely due to mild weather, but the loss of gas production adds a dangerous new strain to its defenses.

Rising Ukrainian import demand may also tighten Europe’s gas market, where inventories remain below average and a cold winter could quickly deplete reserves, pushing prices higher.