Amid growing Russian provocations in the Baltic Sea and chilling calls for the “denazification” of the Baltic states, tension is rising in Northern Europe. Along the Suwalki Gap—a critical strip linking Poland and Lithuania—civilians are making evacuation plans.

Residents in Lithuanian towns like Kalvarija, Lazdijai, and Veisiejai are stockpiling food and water. Though small, these towns fear becoming frontline battlegrounds if conflict erupts. Analysts warn that a new Russian military exercise along Belarus’s western border could be a precursor to something more dangerous: a limited operation to secure a land route to Kaliningrad.

Russia eyes Suwalki Gap to link Kaliningrad

The Suwalki Gap, a 65-kilometer corridor nestled between NATO allies Poland and Lithuania, is becoming one of Europe’s most dangerous pressure points. Known as NATO’s Achilles’ heel, it’s the only land route connecting the Baltic States to the rest of the alliance.

To the west lies Kaliningrad, Russia’s heavily armed exclave. To the east, its ally Belarus. If war breaks out, Moscow may move quickly to link these regions, seizing the Suwalki Gap before NATO can respond. Kaliningrad’s isolation—surrounded by NATO states and cut off from supply routes—gives Russia a potential excuse for action.

Kremlin repeats Ukraine playbook in the Baltics

Moscow claims Kaliningrad faces starvation, blockade, and genocide—echoing the same justification it used before invading Ukraine. These accusations of persecution and “Russophobia” could be used to rally domestic support for a “special operation” through the corridor.

Military planners believe any Russian strike would be swift and well-coordinated. Forces from Kaliningrad would push south. Simultaneously, Belarus-based troops could strike northwest. Their first move: isolate the Polish town of Suwalki and seize control of nearby forests, creating a defensible position that delays NATO intervention.

Russian forces could launch two-front assault

Once the Suwalki region is under control, small Lithuanian towns like Kalvarija and Veisiejai become early targets. Capturing them gives Russia a vital foothold, cutting off Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia from land-based NATO support.

The terrain—dense forests, lakes, and natural barriers—favors the defenders. A 65-kilometer-long, 45-kilometer-wide corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad would allow for Russian troop movement and make NATO counteroffensives far more difficult and time-consuming.

NATO’s vulnerable corridor faces growing threat

This scenario explains the fear gripping Baltic communities. Russia continues to build its narrative around Kaliningrad’s “persecution,” while moving troops into Belarus—mirroring the prelude to its 2022 Ukraine invasion.

The Suwalki Gap’s strategic importance cannot be overstated. If Russia seizes it, NATO loses its only direct land access to the Baltics. Residents are watching, preparing, and waiting—fearful that the next move has already begun.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.