The Russian army’s 90th Guards Tank Division has advanced to within five miles of the Ukrainian fortress city of Pokrovsk, creating a salient in Ukrainian lines, yet faces significant challenges in its broader campaign to fully occupy the Donetsk Oblast.

Russia continues its efforts to capture remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast, focusing on Pokrovsk. Its strategic importance stems from its role as a logistics hub and transportation nexus for Ukrainian forces, making it essential for sustaining military operations in the eastern front.

“By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the ‘belt of fortresses’—Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk—or occupying Donetsk Oblast,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies (CDS) reported.

Recent Russian advances through Zhovte to Novopushtynka suggest an encirclement strategy rather than a direct assault on Pokrovsk. The next likely objectives are Novotroitske and Ukrainka, which would widen the salient and threaten Ukrainian supply lines around Zorya and Sontsivka.

According to CDS, Russia faces severe resource constraints. Over the past two to three months, in order to advance on the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian command has had to maintain high operational troop density not by reinforcements but by regrouping existing forces, the centre reproted.

Monthly Russian casualties exceed recruitment numbers, and modern equipment stocks are depleting, forcing troops to use civilian vehicles. The collapse of Syria’s Assad regime has further complicated Russia’s military position, stranding troops and equipment at coastal bases.

“The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the Russian offensive operation” for 2024, according to CDS.

In 2024, the Russian offensive in Ukraine has accelerated compared to previous years. Since 1 September 2024, they have gained over 1,100 square kilometers in southeastern Ukraine, a stark contrast to the mere 387 square kilometers captured in all of 2023 due to Ukrainian counteroffensives

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