Ukraine faces a potential funding shortfall of $10-15 billion next year as the country struggles to meet reform commitments demanded by international lenders while maintaining intensive defense spending, according to a Reuters analysis.

The government currently directs most state revenues toward military operations, relying on foreign aid totaling $139 billion since Russia’s February 2022 invasion to cover social and humanitarian expenses, state data shows.

Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi revealed that only one-third of the $65 billion required for 2026-2027 has been secured, with negotiations continuing for the remainder. A survey of eight economists by the Centre for Economic Studies in Kyiv indicates Ukraine will need between $39 billion and $58 billion in external financing for 2025 alone.

“A key challenge for the government now is to look for $10-15 billion in addition to that volume of aid which partners have already pledged for 2026,” ICU investment house stated in a research note, according to Reuters.

The funding gap has widened after Ukraine missed several reform targets agreed with lenders, including judicial appointments and anti-corruption leadership positions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to tighten control over the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office sparked the largest wartime street protests and drew sharp criticism from European allies.

Zelenskyy subsequently reversed course, submitting new legislation to parliament to restore institutional independence. The draft bill was scheduled for a vote on 31 July.