A Reuters investigation has uncovered how years of miscalculations and neglect in US and NATO munitions production led to a critical shortage of 155mm artillery shells, undermining Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian forces.

The investigation found that the causes of the shell crisis began years before Russia’s 2022 invasion. Repeated warnings from top NATO commanders and US munitions plant officials went largely unheeded. Many artillery production lines at aging factories in the United States and Europe slowed to a crawl or closed altogether.

Key findings include:

• US production of 155mm shells dropped so dramatically that no new shells were added to the stockpile from summer 2014 to fall 2015.
• Manufacturing defects and safety violations triggered repeated production-line shutdowns.
• A US decision to change the type of explosive used in shells proved costly and ineffective.
• Plans to replace antiquated production facilities fell behind schedule and over budget.

The shortage has left Ukraine massively outgunned especially in the months when US Congress Republicans delayed the approval of funding for military aid for months. Now, Ukrainian commanders report that for every shell their forces fire, Russia fires at least five.

EU’s artillery shell promises to Ukraine fall short of reality, investigation finds

Major Anton Bayev, who coordinated artillery support on the frontline, said the shell shortage left him feeling “naked.” He reported times when his whole brigade had just four shells a day to cover at least a dozen kilometers of territory.

Former British defense chief Lord David Richards criticized Western politicians for overruling the advice of NATO commanders who warned of the dangers of not maintaining higher artillery ammunition stocks.

The US Army is now working to increase production, aiming to reach 100,000 shells per month by late 2025. However, questions remain about whether these efforts will be sufficient to halt Russian offensives.

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• Rheinmetall sending prototypes of 100km shells to Ukraine