The implications of the new US-Ukraine mineral deal will depend on how US President Donald Trump uses the agreement in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin in order to end the war in Ukraine, The Economist has reported. 

Many insiders believe that Trump has yet to form his position on Ukraine fully, despite the strong anti-Ukrainian and isolationist leanings of his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) base and key political appointees.

After signing the agreement, US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said the new partnership “signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to…a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.” While Ukraine will welcome that language, it also knows that the pledge lacks concrete specifics.

There is still hope that the deal could eventually lead to real security guarantees or weapons transfers, fulfilling the original quid pro quo Ukraine offered America last fall.

As a political gesture, this agreement marks a rare triumph for both Trump, who is eager to showcase achievements, and for Ukraine, which is determined not to be sacrificed in the process of a great-power reset.

The deal will apply only to future resource and infrastructure projects selected by Ukraine. It remains unclear whether these will include future oil and gas exploration.

A source close to the White House said the agreement could help dismantle the prevailing MAGA narrative that Ukraine is merely a Democratic Party cause, and instead foster a new sense of “equality” between Kyiv and the new US administration.