Russian President Vladimir Putin remains convinced that Russia can outlast both Ukraine and the West in a prolonged war of attrition and ultimately force Kyiv’s capitulation, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This calculation underscores Moscow's willingness to accept extraordinary losses for marginal territorial gains, betting that Western resolve will collapse before Russia exhausts its manpower reserves.

In a meeting with top defense and security officials on October 7, Putin claimed Russian forces had seized more than 4,900 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025 - roughly the size of the US state of Delaware. 

ISW, however, assessed that verified Russian advances total about 3,561 square kilometers, far short of the Kremlin’s claims.

Putin told the gathering that Ukrainian troops are retreating “along the entire line of contact” and that Russia’s defense industry is fully meeting the army’s needs “at an accelerated pace.” Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov echoed the message, saying Russian troops are advancing “in practically all directions.”

ISW said the remarks reflect Putin’s enduring “theory of victory” - the belief that Russia can continue grinding forward, prevent Ukrainian counteroffensives, and exhaust Western support until Ukraine is forced to yield.

The assessment noted that Putin remains unwilling to engage in any talks short of full Ukrainian capitulation and continues to pursue his original war aims from 2021-2022.

The discrepancy between Kremlin claims and verified advances follows a consistent pattern throughout 2025. ISW documented in September that Russia's Ministry of Defense had inflated territorial gains by between 5% and 112% across different oblasts since January, overstating progress in Kharkiv Oblast by 112% and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by 83%.

Russia's territorial advances in 2025 have come at extraordinary human cost. Between January and April, Russian forces suffered 99 casualties per square kilometer captured - significantly higher than the 59 casualties per kilometer during late 2024.

UK intelligence forecast that 2025 may become Russia's deadliest year of the war, with 160,000 casualties in just the first four months exceeding the 2024 monthly average.