Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast is strengthening Kyiv’s position to push for peace talks, potentially using a framework that could proceed even as the Kremlin refuses to send its diplomats to face-to-face meetings, according to Politico.

On 6 August, Ukrainian troops launched an offensive in the Kursk region, aiming to establish a buffer zone to protect the Ukrainian border from Russian shelling. The rapid advance into Russian territory caused disorganization among its military units stationed near the border or in the rear.

Kyiv’s emerging peace pact model draws inspiration from the July 2022 agreement that enabled Ukraine to restart grain exports via the Black Sea. In that arrangement, Ukraine and Russia engaged in separate agreements, facilitated by the UN and Turkiye as intermediaries, without establishing a direct accord between Moscow and Kyiv.

In Kyiv, there is a growing belief that the rapid advance of Ukrainian troops into the Kursk region has significantly strengthened Ukraine’s position.

“In the Kursk region, we can clearly see how the military tool is being used objectively to persuade (Russia) to enter a fair negotiation process,” said previously Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak.

Meanwhile, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin said he refused to talk with Ukraine after the incursion. Two senior Ukrainian officials told Politico that the Black Sea model could break this deadlock.

“We did not have negotiations with Russia. We had negotiations with Türkiye and the UN, and they negotiated with Russia,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top aide, Andrii Yermak, commenting on the Black Sea deal.

“It was a success. The corridor operated for a year — there were a lot of problems, but it worked. We must acknowledge that. A similar format could be used again.” 

At the same time, Turkiye has been open about its willingness to once again serve as an intermediary to secure a peace deal.

“Türkiye, as always, is ready to facilitate the process,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed in June.

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