Politico’s op-ed argues that Ukraine’s recent cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk Oblast has shifted the tactical narrative of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, but questions whether it will alter the strategic dynamics. The article suggests that while the incursion caught Russian President Vladimir Putin unprepared, its aims are likely limited to forcing troop redeployments and strengthening Ukraine’s future negotiating position.

The raid demonstrates Ukraine’s offensive capabilities and proficiency in combined arms warfare tactics, but without increased Western support and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles, it may be challenging for Ukraine to tip the war decisively in its favor, Politico says. Russia still maintains a numerical advantage, and a war of attrition continues to favor Russia.

The article concludes that while the Kursk incursion has undoubtedly boosted Ukrainian morale and may encourage some tiring allies, it’s unlikely to spark Putin’s downfall or significantly change the war’s course. Politico suggests that the operation’s impact on future peace negotiations remains to be seen, as both sides continue to face challenges in mobilization, morale, and international support.

Related:

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• Ukrainian forces set up “buffer zone” in Kursk Oblast
• Russia began relocating troops from Ukraine to fend off the Kursk offensive
• Russia announces further evacuations in Kursk Oblast as Ukrainian forces advance
• Ukrainians advance in Kursk Oblast, ISW notes 800 km² advance claimed